Articles by Richard Worzel
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Topics: Business, Economy, Society, General
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The one, remaining principle of leadership: foresight, and how to exercise it.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Society, General
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This is a continuation of an earlier blog, in which the fundamental basis of leadership is examined. That earlier blog can be read here.
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Topics: Biosciences, Business, Economy, Environment, Society, Technology, Geopolitics, General
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Here are some of the key trends that are going to shape the year ahead.
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Topics: Business, Demographics, Economy, Environment, Technology, General
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The year ahead holds significant risks and opportunities for the utility industries.
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Topics: Business, Demographics, Economy, Geopolitics, General
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I was recently asked to write about how my views on risk and risk management differ from conventional management views. This is the result.
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Topics: Business, Demographics, Economy, Education, Geopolitics, Society, Technology, General
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Is America still the greatest? And, if so, can it remain the greatest?
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Topics: Business, Demographics, Economy, Geopolitics, General
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In my last blog, 'A Specter Is Haunting Europe', I described the running crisis that threatens Europe's financial markets and economy with potentially severe knock-on effects for the global markets and global economy. I got a very swift reaction from a number of readers: You say this global crisis is a matter of when not if; so what should we do to protect ourselves?
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Topics: Business, Economy, Geopolitics, Society, General
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There's a spectre haunting Europe, threatening to rip the heart out of its financial markets and economy. And if Europe goes, the global markets and global economy won't be far behind.
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Topics: Business, Demographics, Economy, Education, Society, General
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Building on our previous blog, the future of work can lead us to a better world – or one where today's wealthy become aristocrats, and the poor and middle class become peasants.
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Topics: Business, Demographics, Economy, Education, Geopolitics, Society, Technology, General
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I don’t often give my blog over to guests, but this essay gave me pause. I commissioned Chris Ritchie to research certain aspects of social developments, and what you’re about to read was part of his report.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Society, Technology, General
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We grew up with robots, but the robots in our future are both much closer than we realize, and will be very different from what we expect. The implications of the robots in your future are profound.
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Topics: Business, Biosciences, General, Economy, Technology, Society
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Change is happening faster than we believe, and it is about to shake up the corporate world in ways that will catch us by surprise. The innovation revolution is entering an entirely new phase.
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Topics: Biosciences, Business, Economy, General
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Everybody knows there's a crisis coming in freshwater supplies, but forward-thinking farmers can turn that to their advantage!
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Topics: Biosciences, Business, Demographics, Economy, Environment, Geopolitics, General, Society, Technology
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Although there are more than 12 things going on in the world, I believe these are the most significant trends for the year ahead.
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Topics: Business, Demographics, Economy, Education, Geopolitics, Society, Technology, General
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The Occupy movement is most significant not for what the protestors say, but rather that the movement is happening at all. It demonstrates significant unrest, and the greatest dissatisfaction with the capitalist system that we've witnessed since the fall of the Soviet Union. But where is it headed? That's a much more worrisome question.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Society, Technology, General
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We are entering the Second Era of Technology, and it is being ushered in by software available on the new iPhone 4S.
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Topics: Education, Business, Society, Technology, General, Geopolitics
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Our school systems are not good enough for the 21st century. Comparing schools with libraries reveals part of the reason why.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Technology, General
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There are innovations even in the field of innovation. Here are 9 trends in innovation that you should be aware of.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Geopolitics, General
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What are the risks in the stock market right now? And are those the risks we should really be worried about?
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Topics: Business, Economy, Geopolitics, Society, General
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Are we in the countdown to a US government default? It certainly looks that way.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Geopolitics, Society, General
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Using the U.S. government's debt ceiling as a negotiating ploy is indefensible, and may lead to a financial and economic disaster comparable to the 1930s.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Geopolitics, General
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Are we headed for inflation or deflation? Recession or recovery? How about all of the above!
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Topics: Business, Economy, Society, General, Technology, Geopolitics
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Inflation is back, and we won't be happy about it, especially as it's not going to go away any time soon.
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Topics: Business, Biosciences, General, Economy, Technology, Society
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Southwest Airlines' in-flight magazine recently contacted me with an interesting question: What things, of the everyday items we use today, are most likely to disappear? They wanted to ask me 'about a few technologies or tools that are popular today, and are on their way out.' It sounded like a different, but useful, way to think about the future, which I always appreciate, so I took a swing at a small number of things that I think are likely to disappear. Here's what I told them:
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Topics: Economy, Geopolitics, Business, Education, Society, Demographics
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What follows is an excerpt from a chapter of the book I'm currently writing. This section is quite topical right now because of what's happening in Wisconsin and elsewhere, so rather than wait for the book to appear, I'm publishing this excerpt. The book should be out in the late Spring or early Summer of 2011.
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Topics: Business, Society, Economy, Environment, General
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The Earth is a complex system. Indeed, it is a series of interlocking, overlapping, complex systems, and such systems often affect each other in surprising ways. Accordingly, although at first it may seem strange to say that climate change will increase both the number of earthquakes and volcanoes, that actually is the case. Here's how it works:
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Topics: Biosciences, Economy, Business, Demographics, Environment, Technology, General
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Like all years, there will be good news and bad in 2011. Because of the bad planning, bad judgment, and bad behavior of previous years and decades, some of the potential bad news is very scary indeed, as I'll get to in a moment. The odds are that 2011 will be a not bad year, but the risks are higher than normal for economies emerging from a recession. I'm going to deal with the scarier parts first, and then move on to happier things, so bear with me.
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Topics: Business,Economy,General,Demographics,Society
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An unusual report was just published by an insurance company: RSA, which essentially stands for 'Royal and Sun Alliance', based in London, England. RSA is celebrating their 300th anniversary, and decided to do a report on the past 300 years of dealing with risk (which is what an insurance company does), and look into the future of risk as well. There are some interesting insights on modern society and the world in this report, and it also inspired some further thoughts on the true nature of risk that seem worth pursuing. But first, let me draw some highlights from the report.
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Topics: Business, Economy, General, Society
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What works in selling, and why, is changing, both because the environment has changed, and because prospects and their mindsets are changing. To succeed in tomorrow’s world, a successful approach to sales & selling must change as well.
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Topics: Business, Economy, geopolitics, Society, General
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Indicators for both inflation and deflation indicate that the probability of both is rising. Since, in theory, this can't happen, it raises interesting questions. Here's what this might mean.
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Topics: Biosciences, Business, Demographics, Society, General, Economy
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Organizations in the foodservice industry should be planning for the day when all of their clients require special meals. Here's why.
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Topics: Business, Education, Demographics, General, Society, Technology
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The world has been transformed, and is remarkably different than it was 20, 50, or 100 years ago. But our education system is fundamentally unchanged in the last century – we still teach facts, which are now a cheap commodity. If education is to be useful to today's and tomorrow's students, it, too, must change radically. Here's why.
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Topics: Biosciences, Business, Demographics, Economy, Environment, Society, Technology, General
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This is a summary of a presentation I delivered to the World Education Congress of Meeting Planners International in Vancouver, Canada at the end of July, 2010. It was part of a series of “Flash” presentations, each limited to 15 minutes, which didn’t leave a lot of time to elaborate. I’ve fleshed some of the points out here, but the most important reason for approaching the future in this way is that it is never shaped by just one thing, but rather by a confluence of forces, many of which are conflicting.
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Topics: Business, Demographics, Economy, Geopolitics, Society, General
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Unless America and Americans force a drastic change in the country’s direction, the American dream is dead, and America’s place as the leader of the world is over.
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Topics: Business, Society, Demographics, Economy, Society
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There's an epidemic of an unknown disease that can not only force you to change the way you eat for the rest of your life, but may have dramatic consequences for grain farmers and food retailers.
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Topics: Business, Economy, General
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The economies of America, Canada, and the other developed countries are going to be more fragile, and growth will be slower, over the next 10 years that we would like. Meanwhile, there are other problems on the horizon – and a shift in the global economy that has the potential to be explosive.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Environment, Geopolitics, Society, Technology, General
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The next 10 years will effectively settle the climate change debate, but not much else. What's more, we may be making policy in precisely the wrong way. Here's why.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Society, Technology, General
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In the last article I examined the field of risk management, and did a partial environmental scan to assess some of the current risks that are out there. In this conclusion to the set on risk management and foresight, I look at some tools that can help you ask the right questions, and assess the importance of the answers, then come up with plans to prepare for them.
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Topics: Biosciences, Business, Economy, General
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What follows is an amalgam of presentations I made to two risk management groups in very different sectors: one in health care, and the other in insurance. The principles are the same, even though the immediate concerns may be different. This article is in two parts. This first part deals with a futurist's approach to risk management, and some of the potential risks on the horizon. Next week, I'll present some of the tools and techniques for anticipating and managing risk.
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Topics: Business, Economy, General
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Leadership and innovation are two perennial hot buttons in the corporate world, but their relationship is not widely understood. And the happy truth is that they complement each other. Here's how.
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Topics: Business, Economy, General
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We're probably past the worst – but there are bumps still to come.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Geopolitics, General
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The unfortunate possibility now exists that America will fail, financially, precipitating a renewed financial crisis, and plunging the global economy into an even worse recession.
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Topics: Business, Demographics, Environment, Economy, Society, General
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What follows is a summary of a presentation I gave to a symposium on the future of food. In attendance were farm producers, food processors, food retailers, and research scientists.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Geopolitics, General
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What follows is a summary of a presentation I gave to a Canadian manufacturing group concerned about the financial and economic effects of the current crisis. I found it particularly interesting that I had just spoken to this same group eight months earlier, and the presentation was hastily arranged and held just seven days before Christmas, 2008.
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Topics: Economy, Business, Society, General
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The risks of a possible collapse of the financial markets, and a resulting panic, continue to rise. Now is the time to devise a Plan B.
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Topics: Business, Economy, General
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We may be condemned to repeat some of the less enjoyable aspects of the 1970s – and we won't like it.
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Topics: Biosciences, Business, Economy, Environment, Technology, General
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What follows is a summary of a presentation that I made for the international “Pulp and Paper Strategies” conference in Miami, Florida, in mid-February of 2008. In it, I outline the major changes in our society’s use of paper, and the very positive forces at work that can benefit pulp & paper producers, particularly the emergence of the green economy.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Education, Society, Technology, General
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In June of 2000 I wrote an article called “Hi, robot!” in which I said, among other things, that a robot vacuum cleaner for households would be among the first robots available, that a general-purpose robot housekeeper might be available within 7-10 years, and that human-like commercial robots would be generally available within 20 years, and probably sooner. Roomba and Scooba have proven the first prognostication, and Toyota’s work on a household robot, to be brought to market sometime in 2010, looks likely to make the second come true. Accordingly, I thought it was time I revisited the subject, and wrote the following article on a recent plane ride.
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Topics: General, Business, Economy
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The credit crisis unfolding in the U.S. is not over, nor have we seen the worst of what may be to come. Indeed, I would argue that we have seen two of the four Horsemen of the (financial) Apocalypse, and should keep our eyes out for the other two.
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Topics: Economy, Business, Environment, General
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Energy is at the center of our society and economy, so the future of energy is pretty close our future. Yet, with climate change emerging as both a physical and political imperative, energy's future must and will also change.
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Topics: Business, Technology, General, Economy
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Technology is changing all the rules for the future of media and audience measurement – but that's not the important part.
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Topics: General, Business, Environment, Economy
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Traditional farming is dying, and will not recover. However, those farmers who can adapt face a remarkably properous future.
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Topics: Education, Society, Business, General
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Whenever you think about any aspect of the future, if you think about it long enough, you'll wind up thinking about education. That's why education is the answer, but that's also why it's one of the major problems we face in preparing for tomorrow.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Society, Technology, General
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The implications of technology often go far beyond the immediate or the obvious. Although much has been made of the Apple iPod, the implications are even more far reaching than most commentators realize.
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Topics: General, Geopolitics, Technology, Business, Demographics, Economy
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What's ahead for 2006?
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Topics: Business, Economy, Society, General
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In an earlier article ('Why Service Sucks'), I described the effect of Darwin’s theory of natural selection on service industries as being the extinction of the worst rather than the survival of the fittest. This article describes how to give great service and lower costs simultaneously. But be warned: it's not easy.
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Topics: Business, Economy, General
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Ever wonder why you get such dreadful service? Blame Darwin - here's why.
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Topics: Biosciences, Technology, Business, Economy, General
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Biotechnology is getting a great deal of press, but it's not always clear to people outside the field why it is important.
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Topics: Business, Economy, General
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Innovation has become the corporate religion of the 2000s. Yet, crucial as it is, too many companies pay lip-service to innovation without really understanding or committing to it.
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Topics: Business, Biosciences, Demographics, Technology
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This occasional feature is a 'gossip column' of the future, highlighting developments and trends that I believe may become significant over time.
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Topics: Biosciences, Business, Technology, General
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The biosciences revolution of the 21st century promises to be even more dramatic than the IT revolution of the last half of the 20th century. Accordingly, there's money to be made by investors - if they can avoid investing in fool's gold instead.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Society, General
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Toxic ideas seem to emerge from nowhere, capture the attention and imagination of the general public, and leave destruction in their wake. Here's why - and what you can do if one infects your operation.
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Topics: Business, Economy, General
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The pieces are falling into place for a solid year of positive investment gains. Preparing for this prospect – and for the major contingencies – is the best way to profit in 2004.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Demographics, Society
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The Echo Boomers, children of the Baby Boomers, are the Next Big Thing demographically for marketers. Unfortunately, they think and behave differently than earlier generations, so the old ways of marketing don't work. Here's what to do instead.
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Topics: Biosciences, Business, Economy, Geopolitics, General, Technology
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The outlook for 2004 is generally very good. However, there are some really nasty land mines ahead of us that could produce disaster.
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Topics: General, Business, Economy
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The number of decisions we have to make and the amount of information we have to wade through is steadily climbing. Too often the result is increasing complexity and chaos. To manage these successfully requires a change in approach.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Technology
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The changes that technology will impose on retailing have only just begun, and the most astonishing ones are yet to come.
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Topics: Business, Economy, General
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We're standing at the edge of an exciting period of times, with good times in prospects for years to come. Here's why.
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Topics: Business
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The Real Meaning of the Internet to Business
'We've already got a website,' says the stereotypical CIO, 'and we're ready to do business through wireless hand-held computers, so I figure we're all set for the future.' And in so saying, many businesses are setting themselves up for disaster because the real impact of the Internet is only just becoming apparent.
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Topics: Business
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Suppose you go to a Ford dealership and buy a new car off the lot. What brand is it? A Ford, of course. Suppose you go to a website operated by Ford, as Ford would like you to do in future, and select the body type, accessories, the engine, the traction control system, the on-board computer, the satellite navigation system, the financing plan, and set a delivery date to your driveway of five days hence.
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Topics: Business
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In an article I wrote for my newsletter (which has been mailed to clients, but isn’t posted here yet) I talk about the continuing potential of the stock market, even with the run-ups experienced in the late 1990s. However, this doesn’t mean that all stocks are going to benefit. Until the last couple of weeks, where reality has finally started to filter in, there has been a new buzz-word among portfolio managers, used to describe and justify the continued buying of grossly over-valued stocks, especially among the “dot com” companies: momentum.
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Topics: Business
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A man from west Texas drives into a convenience store in southern California for gas. He starts to fill his tank, intending only to fill and go, when the station's computer changes his mind for him. He is unaware that he is the focus of a highly sophisticated marketing technique that I have dubbed 'assassin marketing(TM)'.
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Topics: Business
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The future of the Internet is going to have profound effects on our personal and professional lives, and is certain to change the way corporations do business.
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Topics: Business, Economy, Society, General
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