Have we hit bottom? Are we starting up? Yes, and no. Yes, we’ve probably hit bottom. No, we’re not starting up – at least the United States isn’t, and most of the developed world will see feeble growth at best. Yet, the global economy is growing, and we are seeing the biggest disparity ever between the developed and developing countries in terms of growth. Recent reports indicate that the rich countries (the “developed” ones) will show a decline in real GDP of about -3.5% for 2009, while the developing countries, led by China and India, will see growth of about +5% – a difference of 8.5%. How can this be? And what happens next?

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