Comments on: Techniques for Foresight & Risk Management http://www.futuresearch.com/futureblog/2009/12/04/techniques-for-foresight-risk-management/ Futurist - Speaker - Consultant Sun, 27 Nov 2011 00:20:10 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Shawn Draisey http://www.futuresearch.com/futureblog/2009/12/04/techniques-for-foresight-risk-management/comment-page-1/#comment-223 Shawn Draisey Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:21:18 +0000 http://www.futuresearch.com/futureblog/?p=354#comment-223 Hello Sir, I have followed your stuff since you published future education material for Trimark way back when. Scenario planning needs to be taught and practically constructed all through school and even into career decision making in early adulthood. I enjoy listening to you talk about walking into a clouds of probabilities and being ready for the wild cards. But isn't any good business or military strategist ready for wild cards and can plan for contingencies? Is fear the main factor or is it arrogant denial of change that does us all in when it comes to scenario planning? Shawn Draisey Hello Sir,

I have followed your stuff since you published future education material for Trimark way back when.

Scenario planning needs to be taught and practically constructed all through school and even into career decision making in early adulthood.
I enjoy listening to you talk about walking into a clouds of probabilities and
being ready for the wild cards.

But isn’t any good business or military strategist ready for wild cards and can plan for contingencies?

Is fear the main factor or is it arrogant denial of change that does us all in when it comes to scenario planning?

Shawn Draisey

]]> By: Richard Worzel http://www.futuresearch.com/futureblog/2009/12/04/techniques-for-foresight-risk-management/comment-page-1/#comment-222 Richard Worzel Sat, 05 Dec 2009 16:00:06 +0000 http://www.futuresearch.com/futureblog/?p=354#comment-222 Studying the future moves you to focus on "What if..." because the future is inherently unpredictable. Once you realize that, it becomes a matter of finding the best techniques to help you think about the possible futures you might encounter. Thanks for the praise, as well as the comments. Richard Studying the future moves you to focus on “What if…” because the future is inherently unpredictable. Once you realize that, it becomes a matter of finding the best techniques to help you think about the possible futures you might encounter.

Thanks for the praise, as well as the comments.

Richard

]]> By: Arthur Raymond http://www.futuresearch.com/futureblog/2009/12/04/techniques-for-foresight-risk-management/comment-page-1/#comment-221 Arthur Raymond Sat, 05 Dec 2009 04:00:46 +0000 http://www.futuresearch.com/futureblog/?p=354#comment-221 Hello Richard: I often attend meetings where the Employer states that they are going to follow a certain course of action ... as their studies or statistics suggest that is their necessary path. It really rattles the presenter if the audience starts asking questions like: "What if, (such and such happens?") It appears that most "What if," questions are met with laughter. Perhaps the Presenter wasn't prepared for the bigger questions. On the Canadian West Coast, we are constantly reminded that we live in an Earthquake zone. I wonder how many companies have a real plan for - "What if a major Earthquake hits today ... how are we prepared?" At best, most companies have vaguely thought of a personal escape route for themselves ... but have given no thought to how the company might continue to operate. We have been assured that our Rescue Coordinators have various strategies prepared, but I have my doubts - during the time of continuous Budget cutbacks. Perhaps, Canadians should be asking themselves questions like: What if the price of oil goes over $200 a barrel? What if another Country wants to take over our drinking water supply? What if the Canadian Government can't pay Old Age Security until we turn 70, because so many are living to age 100? What if Canada can no longer afford to pay it's Health Care Costs? What if the Canadian Government continues deficit spending, with no hope of ever being able to repay their liabilities? I think those people with foresight and preparation may be able to overcome the "What if" ... scenarios , but God help the rest. Your Newsletter is inspiring and helps me to consider the alternatives for our future. Thank you for taking the time to think things ahead. Art Hello Richard: I often attend meetings where the Employer states that they are going to follow a certain course of action … as their studies or statistics suggest that is their necessary path.

It really rattles the presenter if the audience starts asking questions like: “What if, (such and such happens?”)

It appears that most “What if,” questions are met with laughter. Perhaps the Presenter wasn’t prepared for the bigger questions.

On the Canadian West Coast, we are constantly reminded that we live in an Earthquake zone. I wonder how many companies have a real plan for – “What if a major Earthquake hits today … how are we prepared?”
At best, most companies have vaguely thought of a personal escape route for themselves … but have given no thought to how the company might continue to operate.

We have been assured that our Rescue Coordinators have various strategies prepared, but I have my doubts – during the time of continuous Budget cutbacks.

Perhaps, Canadians should be asking themselves questions like:

What if the price of oil goes over $200 a barrel?
What if another Country wants to take over our drinking water supply?
What if the Canadian Government can’t pay Old Age Security until we turn 70, because so many are living to age 100?
What if Canada can no longer afford to pay it’s Health Care Costs?
What if the Canadian Government continues deficit spending, with no hope of ever being able to repay their liabilities?

I think those people with foresight and preparation may be able to overcome the “What if” … scenarios , but God help the rest.

Your Newsletter is inspiring and helps me to consider the alternatives for our future. Thank you for taking the time to think things ahead. Art

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