The year ahead is going to be a tumultuous one, challenging in political, economic, and financial terms. Despite this, there are opportunities for those prepared to take advantage of them, because uncertain times mean that market share is up for grabs. And no, it’s not a coincidence that there are 12 trends for 2012. I discarded a bunch more, but it’s such a catchy title I couldn’t resist.

I’m going to approach these 12 trends with three objectives: What is important? Why is it important? And what does it mean to you?

And I’m going to start with the bad news, and end with the silver linings.

1)    Declining American influence – America’s absolute and relative influence in geopolitics, economics, finance, and the military is declining for a host of reasons: the rise of competing powers like China, India, Brazil, and others; the very expensive military adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan, which have sapped America’s willingness to engage in aggressive political and/or military action; the Arab Spring, which eliminated Middle Eastern strongmen like Mubarak who followed America’s political lead, and the continued stalemate over the fate of the Palestinians, means that America’s influence over this critical and unstable region is at or near an all-time low; the Great Recession, which has sapped America’s economic and financial clout; and the dysfunctional stand-off between Republicans and Democrats that has frequently led to policy paralysis.

The implications of this are a less stable, more dangerous world. America may have gone back and forth on whether it wanted to be the world’s policeman, even though it truly was the global cop, and it’s inability to fill that role now means that the world is a more dangerous place.

This sets the stage for sticky situations to emerge, such as the twin nuclear threats from a suddenly even less-stable North Korea, and the only slightly more stable and geopolitically ambitious theocracy in Iran. It also leaves more elbow room for the ever-ambitious China to expand its power and influence, notably in south Asia and the South China Sea. It also leaves critical global issues, like what to do about climate change, without essential leadership.

The implications of this is a world where there are more likely to be more, and more serious, geopolitical, financial, and economic crises, and greater uncertainty in virtually every aspect of life. Others may not always have agreed with American policies, but they will miss America’s steadying influence as it ebbs from their lives.

2)    Ho-hum! Just another financial crisis (European edition) – The daily drumbeat of scary headlines dealing with the financial crises in Europe have gradually deadened everyone’s awareness for how dangerous the situation truly is. In particular, Angela Merkel is juggling hand-grenades, and hoping that she won’t drop any, and that none of them will go off unexpectedly. Germany is the only European country with the potential to stop the rolling crises that are affecting Europe, and then only if Merkel acts in a timely basis. To do this, she must let Greece go bankrupt instead of propping it up, shore up the banks, notably German banks, that have bought far too many dodgy EU bonds in the past, allow the European Central Bank (ECB) to become a lender of last resort, with the ability to stop a run on European bonds, and halt the bond market attacks on other European countries, starting with Portugal and Ireland, but extending to the much bigger countries like Spain, Italy, and even France. But Germany doesn’t want to do these things, and German voters are adamant that they won’t subsidize what they see as the lazy, profligate lifestyles of southern Europeans. But if Germany doesn’t act, and in a timely fashion, it may lose the ability to act at all, and come under attack from the bond markets as well. Indeed, German bonds are no longer being bought with as much enthusiasm as they were even two months ago. If Germany doesn’t act soon, it may lose the ability to do so at all.

Remember what happened in the American financial markets in 2008? If Germany doesn’t act in time, we could see the same kind of thing happen in 2012, this time starting with a run on European government bonds. From there a run could spread to those banks – American as well as European – that hold too many of these bonds. And once such a run started, the most dangerous question of all would emerge: “Who’s next?” Investors, frightened by the panic, would look to sell any and every questionable credit, and their attention might turn to the various U.S. state and local governments, like Illinois, California, and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, among many others, that are struggling with their finances.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has become the de facto lender of last resort to the entire developed world, and would undoubtedly step in and support the banks and markets with everything they had. But this time, remembering the callous, greedy ingratitude of last rescue of the banking industry, American voters and the American Congress would likely tell the banks to drop dead. It was a hard enough last time to get Congress to bail out the banks; this time I suspect it would be impossible, even though failing banks would take the global economy down with them. Moreover, the Fed doesn’t have anywhere near as many bullets today as they did in 2008, and Fed Chairman Bernanke already has some Republicans, notably Ron Paul, baying for his blood over the quantitative easing from the last crisis.

The danger here is frighteningly real, and even greater than the risks we faced in the panic of 2008. Yet, the steady drip of crisis headlines and last-minute rescues has left many people convinced that nothing will happen. If it does, it will catch people flat-footed, not because they didn’t know there was a crisis, but because they have been hearing about it for over two years now, and have tuned it out. We could muddle through, and probably will – but the risks are far higher than most people realize. It will be important to have thought out a Plan B to deal with the unthinkable, if it happens, one that prepares you and your finances for a bigger repeat of the 2008 panic. Again, it probably won’t happen – but it’s better to have a plan and not need it, than need a plan and not have it.

3)    Yes, China’s influence will continue to rise, but…  Napoleon famously said, “China is a sleeping giant. Let it sleep.” Well, China’s very much awake now, and throwing her weight around – although cautiously. If I were (God forbid) Emperor of China, I would require my minions to tread cautiously, to smile a lot at our trading partners and neighbors, and to make our gains slowly, one salami slice at a time, never appearing too greedy or overreaching. I would practice soft diplomacy, offering aid and comfort where I could do so cheaply, loudly proclaiming our respect for other countries’ internal policies, taking leadership positions in things, like climate change, where I knew I was going to have to make changes anyway, and generally trying to look like a good global citizen. I would act, in short, as if time were on my side, and I was going to be the next Big Thing.

And generally speaking, that is precisely what China is doing – except that every once in a while the mask slips, and the avarice and aggression shows, as with the boundary disputes with other countries, especially as related to the South “China” Sea, which China (the nation) seems to be trying to interpret literally as being a Chinese lake.

But China has an Achilles’ heel – several of them, in fact – and does not have (much) time on its side. Its biggest weakness is that it is aging faster than any other significant country on Earth. Because of its One Child policy, China’s population is expected to peak, and begin declining, sometime around 2020 – within the next 10 years. And its labor force is already in decline, even as the demands for higher wages push its cost structures higher.

Meanwhile, although there is a great deal of pride in China’s new affluence among the Chinese, that affluence is not evenly spread, and there is unrest among those who remain poor. Add to this the widespread corruption of Chinese officials at all levels, which often provokes revolts, like the one in Wukan, which leads to simmering dissatisfaction among many Chinese.

This will further be exacerbated by the fact that China’s factories are automating almost as quickly as those of the developed world, which threatens to slow the rate of job creation, productivity, and affluence markedly over the next 10 years. Yet, China dare not automate; to do so would mean a loss of competitiveness, which would produce even worse results as industries would move elsewhere.
So, with that in mind, what would I, as self-appointed Emperor of China, do? Worry about a future I couldn’t control, and for which I could not see a clear path forward. The next 10 years will mark the beginning of the end of China’s ascension, and if I were Emperor, I’d think about retiring to some warm, cushy haven before the revolution came. Chinese Spring, anyone?

The implications are for China to step up its attempts to increase power and influence, and throw its weight around even more actively before that power starts to wane, but as quietly as possible. Look for China to try to make this the China Decade, especially in finance, trade, and geopolitics, as it attempts to pull in as much as it can while it can.

4)    American Spring? Meanwhile, closer to home, while those on the political right like to dismiss the Occupy movement (e.g., Occupy Wall Street), the fact that the movement happened at all is the most significant part of it. Indeed, Time magazine made protestors its “Person of the Year”, and that’s not restricted to just the Arab countries. The Occupy movement and protests against cut-backs in many developed countries had many of the earmarks of the Arab Spring: protestors saying that their governments serve an elite clique and not the people; lots of people, especially young men, who cannot find work despite months or years of trying; and a belief that the political system is neither representative nor responsive. Just because winter has fallen, and the Occupy settlements have been disbanded does not mean that the dissatisfaction has gone away. And with increasingly dysfunctional government in America, the potential is there for a much stronger protest movement against the System, however that is defined. American Spring, perhaps? It sounds unlikely, but not as unlikely now as it did before, and it won’t be restricted to America for discontent will grow in all developed countries.

This is especially true as the boomers move towards retirement, only to find that their either don’t have the resources to retire and that no one is going to donate them, or that the civil servant pensions that they were promised are unaffordable.

The protest movements have only just begun, and they are going to be acrimonious, disruptive, and at times hijack the political process.

5)    Mixed signals for both weaker – and stronger – economic growth.  Europe and its prospects are dragging the global economy down. The uncertainty in Europe, combined with the painful budget cuts in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, mean that Europe is now in recession and a drag on the global economy.

Meanwhile, China, which had been concerned about inflation, and hence was hiking interest rates in a bid to slow it, has now reversed itself, which I can only interpret as concern that growth will slow more than they want. That’s a potential positive, as it will add stimulus to the global economy.

Canada, which has to date seemed to skate above most of the problems of the rest of the developed world, now seems to be experiencing slower growth, with an unexpected jump in the unemployment rate, while its housing market is looking pricey, frothy, dangerous, and much like America’s prior to the collapse in 2008, especially in condo development in its major cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary. Moreover, its consumer debt levels are exceeding the levels of American consumers in 2007, and no less a figure than Mark Carney, the highly respected Governor of the Bank of Canada, has warned consumers and banks alike to cut back on consumer borrowing. Canada could be arriving late for the financial meltdown of 2008 – but if its consumers don’t mend their ways, they will get there.

And yet, America, which until 2008 was seen as the world’s engine of growth, seems to be picking up for no specific reason. Actually, this was almost inevitable because of the natural dynamism and entrepreneurship of the American economy. What has prevented America from rebounding earlier, or more strongly, has been the housing market, which is still in horrendous shape – but slowly improving.

So how will this balance out through 2012? Assuming that Europe doesn’t crash and burn, and drag everyone else down with it, and that Iran doesn’t precipitate a significant war in the Middle East, then America will continue to recover, its jobless rate will continue to decline (slowly), the world will lick its (economic) wounds, and things will slowly get better.

Accordingly, while I continue to counsel my clients to have a Plan B in their back pocket if things do go bad, my primary advice is the prepare now for better times ahead. There are problems – big problems – ahead, and the American election in 2012 is not going to help, but for 2012 we are likely to see an improving environment, and opportunities re-emerging for those with the courage to grasp them, as I outline in Trend #7 below.

6)    Climate change accelerates – and the consequences will multiply. The most significant and portentous climate news of 2011 was the discovery of methane gas bubbling up in the Arctic Ocean off the north coasts of both Siberia and Alaska. Methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, and the melting of the Arctic ice cap, combined with the rise in the temperature of the Arctic Ocean, has started to release methane from the ocean floor. As well, as temperatures rise in the northern polar regions of Siberia, Alaska, and Canada, the permafrost melts, releasing even more methane into the atmosphere. The amounts of methane that could be released by both sea floor methyl hydrates and permafrost are staggeringly huge, and could dramatically accelerate the rate of climate change. If this trend continues, not only will the debate over climate change be over, but humanity will be forced to race to keep up with the potential changes.

As it happens, the vast majority of climate scientists – something approaching 95% – now agree that climate change is happening, and that humanity is at the very least a significant contributor to it. Since I speak to lots of different kinds of audiences, I can tell you that most groups now accept that climate change is happening, even those that have been among the most vocal doubters. The doubts they now raise are more along the lines of whether humanity is to blame. But from my point of view, it no longer matters: if your house is on fire, you don’t throw gasoline on the fire, regardless of how it started. That’s roughly the position we’re in now.

In 2012, we will get more information about the release of methane, and can only pray for good news. Meanwhile, brace yourself for more strange, and increasingly extreme weather. And because climate is a chaotic system (where chaos theory is a branch of mathematics), it is literally unpredictable. This means we can’t tell whether we will get floods or drought, hurricanes or tornados, or something else unforeseen. But it won’t be business as usual, either.

7)    Innovation as Steve Jobs’ legacy.  Jobs didn’t invent innovation, but he sure popularized it! Innovation has become a corporate religion in recent years, and with good reason: innovation can allow you to disrupt the marketplace, scoop up market share, increase profits, and win friends and influence people, just as Jobs and Apple have done. Yet, innovation is hard, especially because there’s a natural resistance to change and to the real risk-taking that innovation requires.

But if there is a theme for the corporate world in 2012, it is that now is the time to get serious about innovation. As an innovation specialist who runs seminars and workshops for corporate clients, I’m seeing this on a daily basis in genetic and medical research, agriculture, the automotive industry, the insurance industry and finance generally, plus just about every other sector of the economy. And technology itself embodies innovation. Indeed, the idea of a technological company not working hard at innovation seems like recipe for extinction. The world is changing rapidly, and there are lots of new opportunities – and disasters – out there. It’s raining soup, but if you just stand there, looking up in surprise, you’ll drown!

8)    Who dares, wins. Such is the motto of Britain’s fabled SAS – one of the world’s premier commando groups. But their motto applies equally to unsettled times. During such times, it’s easy and very, very tempting to hunker down, conserving cash, and wait for lazy, easy times to return. But study after study shows that companies that continue to market aggressively, and pursue research into new ideas, new products, and better results for their customers make far more inroads with modest expenditures during bad times than spending far more during good times, when everyone else is competing hard. Moreover, loyalty is won when times are bad, both among consumers, and among employees. And best of all, you can often accomplish a great deal with careful planning and foresight rather than lavish expenditures. This is where strategic planning comes to the fore. The time to be thoughtfully aggressive is when your competitors are playing turtle.

9)    The Red Invaders. The emergence of a Chinese middle class not only means upward pressure on food and fuel prices, it also means a vast invasion of Chinese tourists bearing money. For those countries and regions able to attract such tourists, it means a new source of revenue, and a big shot in the arm. And, as with all ethnic groups, it also means serving them the way they want to be served in terms of language, food, and customs. To the winner go the mega-spoils.

10) Haggling returns to North American retailing. Smart retailers are recognizing that it’s no longer enough to post a sign saying “10% off” to attract consumers, but that consumers are more demanding now, and are moving away from the traditional “no haggle” approach to buying. Moreover, haggling offers two additional benefits to consumers: it’s become somewhat of a game where they can enjoy the thrill of the hunt; and it offers bragging rights when talking with their friends. As a result, haggling has been emerging in two different ways, one passive, and the other active.

The passive form of haggling is to wait for sales. You can witness this almost anywhere when consumers see an item they like in a store, and ask if it’s on sale. When they’re told that it’s not, they turn up their noses, and say they’ll wait until it is. This might be described as “temporal haggling”, where the consumer is saying, “I’ll wait until you lower the price before I buy it. And if you don’t lower it enough, I won’t buy it.” Smart stores are responding in creative ways. Some salespeople say, “No, that’s not on sale, but it will be starting next week,” which amounts to a counter-offer. A smart consumer will reply by saying, “Can you put it aside for me until then?”, implicitly offering to buy it if they do. Some salespeople say no, others say “Sure.” The net result is that store and consumer have haggled over the price to agree on a sale/purchase. Yet the smart retailer actually has an advantage in this exchange: they get to name the sale price in temporal haggling.

By comparison, in active, more traditional haggling the consumer takes the initiative, saying something like “What’s your best price on this widget?” If the salesperson replies with the sticker price, the haggle is over and the consumer leaves. If the salesperson names a price, the consumer responds dismissively, and says, “I wouldn’t pay a nickel over $X for that”, and the salesperson can choose to respond or not. This is, as I say, traditional marketplace haggling.

If a retailer wants to capitalize on the re-emergence of haggling into the North American marketplace, they need to anticipate it, and come up with a range of responses. One might be to say, “We can’t discount this item today, but it is going on sale next week. Would you like to put a deposit on it to hold it until then?” The retailer regains the initiative this way, and moves towards a close. Or better still, the retailer should look for a way to add value rather than cut price by making a counter-offer like, “No, I’m sorry, we can’t discount that item. But we can offer you a 50% discount on a matching accessory if you buy it.”

Regardless of approach, though, retailers should be prepared to return to marketplace haggling, and have a range of responses ready to deal with it. Consumers, as always, should decide what they want, and what their bottom line is in getting it.

11) Health care magic blossoms. Putting aside the issue of cost, which concerns everyone, the ability of health care to solve problems is beginning to move at computer speeds, in part because IT is increasingly being used by doctors, nurses, hospitals – and patients – to manage health care, and in part because research is increasingly being done using smart, powerful computer tools to perform research and execute treatments. Among the changes in the immediate future of health care are:

• The rapidly rising ability to repair failing hearts and minds (or at least brains) and other organs with stem cells. Stem cell treatments are starting to move out of the laboratory and into the operating room, and 2012 will see hundreds of people receiving this kind of therapy.
• Similarly, 3D printers, which have been in development for roughly 20 years, are now good enough that they are starting to be used to create replacement organs from a patient’s own tissue. This will gradually move into mainstream medicine, with replacement hearts, livers, and kidneys being at the top of the list.
• Quadriplegics will increasingly be able to interact with the world through prosthetics controlled by thought alone, either through electrodes that interpret brain wave patterns, or implanted chips which interpret specific thought-impulses.
• Retinal implants are starting to emerge that can help blind people discern light, shapes, and some objects. The implication is that we may be able to help aging boomers improve their failing eyesight as they age – one of the biggest complaints of old age!
• Health care is increasingly falling into the hands of the patient – literally. Smartphones, which are fundamentally wearable computers with all the capabilities of what used to be called “supercomputers”, can now work with Bluetooth-enabled sensors to monitor various aspects of health, from the vigor of your workout, to the health of your heart, to the level of your blood sugar. This will lead to a revolution in health management, with consumers sometimes way out in front of practitioner.
• Likewise, as patients become more and more comfortable with researching medical conditions and treatments online; they are demanding an increasing role in their own diagnosis and treatment; becoming active, important advocates for fund-raising and acceptance of treatments; and blunt critics of health care practitioners through social media and word of mouth. Smart practitioners are accepting this trend and rolling with it. Old school practitioners are resisting, but may wind up steamrolled by it.
• Crowdsourcing of tough diagnoses, and novel solutions to the medical and financial problems of health care promise to open yet another front in the health care revolution. This follows on with the success of crowdsourcing in helping leading-edge research scientists in astronomy (galaxyzoo.org) and protein research (Foldit game softwear).
• Sequencing your genome gets cheap. Sequencing the first genome cost billions of dollars and took decades to perform (culminating in the Human Genome Project). Today it costs about $1,000 (although analysis costs significantly more). Within 10 years, it will cost $100, and analysis will cost about $500 more, and will provide you a complete run-down of where your vulnerabilities lie, and what you can do to forestall future health problems. For 2012, we will see incremental advances towards that goal, with major diseases identified, and a short list of things you do – and don’t – want to do or eat prescribed. This is the true beginning of personalized medicine, and it will revolutionize health care.

12) Technology accelerates in 2012. It’s hard to know what to leave out: electronic mind-reading? Glasses that emit sounds and smells to allow you to enhance social media? The proliferating tablets and smartphones with ever-more wondrous abilities? Here’s a partial list of things I think demonstrate trends that will become increasingly important:

• 3D printers – As well as making replacement organs, 3D printers are coming into the price range of consumers, and may mean that you can buy your own desktop factory. Need a replacement screw for a door? Make it yourself. Need to duplicate a key? Ditto. See a nifty device on TV? Download the plans and make it yourself. Of course, who knows what the ink cartridges will cost.
• Near-eye monitors – These look like glasses, but are computer monitors. They’re the lineal descendents of jet fighter heads-up displays, and will revolutionize the way we use computers, particularly smartphones, but have been hampered by high costs. Prices are starting to approach luxury consumer levels, so applications will start to appear in things like immersive gaming, personal entertainment theaters, medical imaging, and augmented reality.
• Augmented reality through your smartphone – Augmented reality is overlaying information on top of the view from your Mark 1 eyeball, much as Google Street View overlays the names of shops on a photo. You’ll be able to hold up your smartphone’s camera and have your phone overlay directions, stores, infrastructure views, or whatever else might be useful to you. This gets better when you can view the results in your near-eye monitors.
• Cloud computing explodes – Owning a computer is so 2010. Cloud computing is rapidly placing the resources of today’s supercomputers in your hands for pennies a minute. One researcher used one of the commercial clouds to try to break his password to a social media website by brute force, just to see if he could do it. Using the cloud and standard code-breaking techniques he did it in minutes, and it cost him 39¢. As the tools to harness this power get more powerful and easier to use, the potential of the cloud will be adapted by more and more users.
• Siri & copycats + babbling to your smartphone – Siri is an application of the iPhone 4S that allows you to speak to your iPhone and get it to do things for you. This might be setting a count-down timer, converting milliliters to fluid ounces, finding an address and directions from your present location, or looking up a phone number (all of which I’ve done). Apple is offering this technology as a beta version now, but every Siri request goes through Apple’s servers. This means the potential exists to assess what people want to do, and come up with solutions, improving the results really quickly, making personal avatars (also called PDAs, butlers, or assistants) much more valuable in short order. And that means everyone will rush into the field. This will lead to lots of really bad copycat applications, but ultimately a revolution in how we use technology.
• Biometric passwords – Our world is becoming so full of passwords that need to be foolproof (meaning our tendency to forget them) that biometric passwords are almost inevitable, and they are beginning to appear. They will be expensive at first, but gradually retina, fingerprint, voiceprint, and other means of making sure you are you will become cheap and commonplace, and then you will become your own password, no memory required.
• Robots – Everyday robots are here, but they are clunky, expensive, or just plain cute. That’s changing very quickly, and 2012 will see more and more of them appearing in more and more places. Typically these will be commercial settings, but health care is one place where robots make sense and will be used. Rosie the Robot won’t be washing your dishes this year, but she’s coming – if you’re willing to pony up the equivalent of the price of a luxury car.

The Occupy movement is most significant not for what the protestors say, but rather that the movement is happening at all. It demonstrates significant unrest, and the greatest dissatisfaction with the capitalist system that we’ve witnessed since the fall of the Soviet Union. But where is it headed? That’s a much more worrisome question.

The fuel that powered the Vietnam war protests was the draft. There were many other issues – objections to the military-industrial complex, objections to American foreign policy, objections to the money misspent on the war, dislike and disagreement with McNamara and Johnson, even objections to war per se – but without the draft, the protests could not have been as sustained or as widespread as they were.

In the same way, the fuel that powers the Occupy movement is jobs – or rather, lack of jobs. In America, and most other developed countries, the official unemployment rate is high, but the true unemployment rate is obscenely so. In the U.S., for instance, the official rate is 9%. But if you include those who have stopped looking for work, and therefore are no longer counted in the official unemployment statistics, then add those who are underemployed, the true rate approaches 20%. And if you look at the rate for young men, particularly among minorities, it approaches 40%. There is immense frustration with the lack of opportunity, and the smug, self-righteous people who look at the protestors and sneer, “Get a job!” only reveal the vast depths of their ignorance.

It’s true there are many issues embraced by the Occupiers, but without the lack of jobs, the movement would never have developed into much of anything. Americans are not generally a jealous people. If people were prospering, the middle class was expanding, and young people were able to find jobs and start their careers, they wouldn’t really have cared what percentage of total wealth is held by the top 1% of income earners. What rankles is that the rich continue to get richer through a perceived manipulation of “the system”, while the vast majority of other people suffer economically. It leads to the belief that the game is fixed in favor of those who can afford to buy the politicians. Whether this is right or not may not matter – it’s the perception that’s important here. And that perception may be explosive.

But where is this movement going? What’s next?

The Future of Work

If the future holds more jobs, and greater prosperity for most workers, then the Occupy movement will collapse from lack of fuel, and be remembered as a strange fad that came and went, like pet rocks or hula hoops. That’s not the case, because the future of work is much bleaker than people, even most top economists realize.

There are two forces that are squeezing workers in all developed countries: foreign competition, and domestic automation. One is going to get much worse, and the other is going to get slightly better.

The one that will get slightly better, at least in manufacturing, is foreign competition. There have been headlines for decades about the offshoring of jobs. There was even a management cliché for it in the 1990s: “Emigrate, automate, or evaporate,” which meant move your factories offshore in order to take advantage of dramatically lower wages in developing countries; decrease the labor content of your products in order to reduce the advantage of cheap labor in developing countries, or go out of business. (As an aside, there’s actually a fourth option: innovate, but that’s another story.)

This happened because of the emergence of the global economy. A global marketplace implies a global labor pool. If workers in developing countries can do similar work, but at much lower wages, then the work will naturally gravitate to them, and away from workers in developed countries. This has been going on since the 1970s, and is a familiar tale. It makes headlines, and becomes the subject of learned papers by economists, and protests by industries and unions that want protection. And the offshoring of jobs will continue until there is a rough parity between those producing things offshore, using cheaper labor, and the cost of producing things at home, using more expensive labor.

One way this could happen is through wages falling in developed countries, and rising in developing countries. But wages tend to be sticky; not many people are willing to take a cut in pay. As a result, what has tended to happen instead is that workers here are let go, and their jobs disappear, even as the wages in places like China and India are, indeed, rising.

The mild good news here is that much of this adjustment has already happened. Indeed, there are a few reports of manufacturers moving production back to America as the cost of labor in China, for instance, has risen, and as governments, particularly in the southern American states, have reduced legal protections for workers, effectively lowering their cost. (Whether you view this as a good thing or not is a separate issue. Indeed, it’s a difficult issue: do we want good worker protection, but no jobs, or bad worker protection and some jobs?)

The other way for workers in developed countries to compete is through higher productivity, and many companies have survived and kept their production in America that way. Yet, even when they succeed, the number of jobs required goes down. Businesses survive, but only by shedding jobs, leaving a trail of unemployment in the wake.

This is the past and present. The future will be different.

Increased productivity comes most notably through increased automation, and we’ve all experienced that, as when we go to the gas pump, swipe our credit card, and pump our own gas, all without an attendant. But automation is about to become supercharged.

The rate of change in computing speed and cost-effectiveness is not only accelerating, but the rate of acceleration is increasing. Some technology forecasters believe that computers will increase in power by 1,000 times over the next 10 years. With this growth in computing power available at steadily cheaper prices, automation is going to accelerate dramatically, eating its way up the workplace food chain. Only this time, it’s not going to be primarily blue-collar jobs that disappear – that’s pretty well already happened – but white-collar jobs that are hard hit. Indeed, anyone who uses a contemporary computer can experience this for themselves.

With the Macintosh laptop that I’m using to write this blog, I could (if I had the talent) write a new piece of music, score it, perform it with dozens of (computerized) instruments, record it and release it for sale. I could take videos with my iPhone, download them to my laptop, edit them, add titles and special effects, add in the music that I had created, and then publish the end result on YouTube. In effect, with these two tools, a laptop computer and a smartphone, I can replace composers, performers, and an entire movie making team – and that’s using today’s technology. Very shortly, I could make an entire movie, using technology to create photo-realistic virtual actors and background scenes, dub the voices myself, then change the sound of my voice using technology, and produce an entire movie without anyone else. True, it would be a terrible movie as I know nothing about directing, editing, or acting, and not much about composing or playing musical instruments – but that’s not the point. The point is that the tools we use are becoming so powerful that high-end jobs that used to require skilled people can now be done by ordinary folk.

Likewise, computers will move into medicine, performing research using Genetic Programming, and assisting doctors to do complex diagnoses using smart computers like IBM’s Watson; performing clerical work in almost every conceivable industry, and displacing millions of white collars workers along the way; drive cars, trucks, and trains unassisted; and almost any other kind of routine work. Indeed, computer intelligences and everyday robots will move towards replacing workers in any and every kind of repetitive work, leaving only creative, innovative, entrepreneurial work – and leaving millions, or even tens of millions of people unemployed.

What Happens When Too Many People Are Unemployed?

If you look at the Arab Spring from earlier this year, it wasn’t so much a yearning for the freedom to read newspapers not approved by dictators, or the desire to vote that was the driving force that caused people to revolt, but unemployment, especially among young men – leading the inability to create a life, to feed your children, or even to be able to afford to get married and start a family – that drove the revolutions, and inspired young men to face bullets and tanks. If you look at the protests in Europe, it’s not just the anger that a lazy, luxurious way of life is being taken away from Greek citizens, but a very real fear that they won’t be able to live that drives citizens to the barricades.

Unemployment, the specter of want, and the inability to make a decent living, to have a decent life, is historically a very potent, very scary force in geopolitics, and it’s with us now. The Occupy movement is not just about fairness, but driven by the fear and anger that there is no opportunity unless you are one of the privileged class that has a job. As the number of jobs lost to automation rises, so too will the number of people who will respond to the goad of fear and anger about their future.

Worse, it’s not just about finding a job – it’s also about keeping one. Jobs appear and disappear faster than at any time in history, and someone who is a valued employee and a rising star one day can be redundant and valueless the next. A person in that position can try to retrain and find new work, but they find themselves among the multitudes of people desperately seeking work. Without the in-demand skill that got them a job in the first place, they are reduced to the same pavement-pounding, resuming-producing, faith-sapping odyssey that afflicts so many out of work people today.

I’ve seen this coming for some time. In 1993, I wrote a book called Facing the Future. In that book I wrote the following passage:

It’s an overall decline in the need for work that concerns me, brought about by the increasing capabilities and sophistication of computers.

I seem to be very much in the minority on this view, and I may be dead wrong. The conventional view is that as jobs disappear from manufacturing and clerical work, for instance, the steadily rising productivity of workers using increasingly sophisticated automation will create a new prosperity that will increase demand and create new jobs. This is certainly reasonable, because it is precisely what has happened throughout history. But where, I wonder, will the new jobs appear? The conventional view is that new services will spring up, and that higher living standards will allow people to spend money on things they could never afford before, and that much of this will be for personal and personalized services.

I can see logic in this. New services do appear. There were no aerobic instructors, for example, in my grandfather’s day. But how much personal service can we use? Moreover, generally speaking, service jobs pay less than manufacturing jobs. As for being able to buy things that we couldn’t afford before, since manufacturing will increasingly be automated the higher demand for manufactured goods won’t necessarily generate more jobs.

This is not a problem that will burst on the scene in the next five to ten years. Humans are still capable of offering a flexibility, initiative, and creativity that machines cannot duplicate. But at some point, whether it’s twenty years away or one hundred, I’m afraid that the time will come when there will be very few jobs that computers can’t do better, faster, cheaper, and more reliably than humans. As that day approaches, we will be confronted with several problems.

In the first place, we will need a new economic system. Much as it grieves me to say so, free market capitalism may be dying, for it only pays those who are part of the production process. If virtually no one is part of this process, all the fruits of production will belong to those who own the machines – a recipe for the peon-and-aristocracy patterns of Third World economies. But where will the machine-owners find their customers? People can’t be consumers unless they have money to spend. …[1]

In the intervening 18 years, I’ve seen nothing to change my mind. We are, indeed, heading towards a world of aristocrats and peons. Indeed, that is precisely what the Occupy forces are demonstrating against, only they use a slightly different terminology: the 1% and the 99%. Same thing.

So where is this leading us? If I’m right, then even if the economy and employment picks up, and mollifies the Occupy protestors and their spiritual kin, the concerns will return again and again as the long-term rates of unemployment, especially among the young, continue to rise. And that way lies revolution.

What Should We Do About This?

If we lived in Naples in 79 A.D., and saw steam pouring out of the top of Mount Vesuvius, we would try to warn the residents to flee. We are in an analogous situation. This volcano won’t erupt in the next month or next year – but as things are trending, we need to take action, and soon, or we risk precisely the kind of revolution we witnessed in the Arab Spring earlier this year.

It’s no good trying to stem the tide of automation. That smacks of the 19^th century luddites smashing mechanized looms that they felt were stealing their jobs. Moreover, it would be like trying to hold back the tide, and about as successful. It is possible that politicians, under voter pressure, will seek to ban automation and the productivity increases that automation produces in order to preserve jobs. (This is also called “featherbedding”.) All that means is that countries that do not ban automation will see their relative productivity increase, their cost structure decrease, so that the jobs will migrate from here to there rather than being lost to automation.

Instead, politicians, economists, and anyone else interested in our future prosperity and stability should be taking a serious look at how to create new, better jobs that people can do best. These will largely be entrepreneurial, I suspect, and will all be creative, and focus on innovation. This also implies a complete revamp of our education system, away from rote learning and memorization, and towards creativity and individually customized education, to enable each person to emphasize the things they are best at.

None of this will happen quickly or easily. It requires a very different view of “job creation” and a very different understanding of the future of work. The “magic of the markets” won’t solve this problem. Capitalism, left to itself, will emphasize greater productivity through automation, leading to greater profits for the owners of the machines – until profits collapse because there aren’t enough consumers to by the goods and services industry produces. Capitalism will lead to a dead end.

This is not the conventional view, and many will decry my message as “socialist”, although I’ve said nothing at all about redistributing wealth. Some will pillory me for being alarmist, but without attempting to refute my reasoning. And some will just hide their heads in the sand and say “it can’t happen here.”

To this last group, I would suggest that they tell that to Moammar Gadhafi and Hosni Mubarak. They were sure it couldn’t happen there, either.

The stock markets have fallen out of bed since President Obama signed the ludicrous debt ceiling deal. I don’t wonder about that; what I wonder is why they took so long. I was expecting stocks to fall two weeks earlier than they did. But now the question becomes: What happens next? This is actually a much deeper question than it seems, because it goes far beyond just the behavior of stock prices and markets. But let’s start with stocks.

When I started work on this blog, the S&P 500 index was at 1,119 which put it almost exactly half way between the October 4th, 2008 high of 1,565 and the March 6th, 2009 low of 667. Specifically, it was 452 points below the high, and 446 above the low, so almost exactly half way. (And if you want to look at that in percentage change terms, it’s 40.4% down from the high and 39.9% up from the low.) That would seem to imply that while there may be more risks yet in holding stocks, we may be getting through the worst, and should start compiling lists of stocks we want to buy. Indeed, since I went to virtually all cash in my personal and corporate investment accounts more than two weeks ago, I am waiting for buying opportunities, and creating just such lists.

But there’s an old stock market cliché for times like this: Never try to catch a falling knife. Don’t buy when markets are in free fall, because you’ll only wish you waited longer. Barton Biggs, a well-respected market analyst and money manager, was interviewed on Bloomberg TV, and said he had a list of great stocks that were now bargains, but that he wished he’d waited longer to buy them – and that was 150 points higher. So, that being said, what are the risks, and how will we know when the worst is over?

Well, first of all, you need to consult a properly licensed investment advisor for specific information, someone who knows your financial position, tax status, age, risk tolerance, cash flow, and all the other pieces of information that go into making a proper assessment of your investment needs. I am not that person, and this is not intended as investment advice. Here endeth the small print.

Risk management

Let’s take a step back and see if we can find some benchmarks. To do so, I want to go back to a concept that I’ve written about repeatedly in this blog, and use regularly with my consulting clients: the ratio of risk managment. What are the possible risks? And what are the potential returns? Once you’re assessed those, you’re in a better position to make decisions, rather than just guessing whether the markets will go up or down.

By my definition, risk is the cost of being wrong. So, if we invest in stocks now, or don’t invest in stocks now, what are the risks either way? Let’s start with the potential positive risks, because, unfortunately, this is a much shorter list.

Could the markets surprise us on the upside? There are three factors that drive stock prices: interest rates, corporate earnings, and investor psychology. I don’t foresee any upward pressure on interest rates unless there’s a true financial panic. Even if there were a panic, there are so many trillions of dollars invested in U.S. Treasury securities that there is nowhere else for them to go. Accordingly, absent an end-of-the-world type scenario, I believe interest rates are a neutral influence at worst, and probably slightly positive.

Next are corporate earnings, which have been surprisingly good of late. Yet, I believe the outlook for the U.S. economy – and all others that are at least partly reliant on it, which is everyone – is worse now than it was before the manufactured debt ceiling crisis. That political stunt by Tea Party fanatics shook people’s faith in the American political system, and raised doubts about the American economy that weren’t there before. As a result, more people are talking about a double-dip recession now than before, and such talk tends to become self-fulfilling. Moreover, falling stock markets tend to make people feel poorer, which makes them spend less, which slows demand, which slows the economy. All told, then, I would have to assess corporate earnings as being neutral at best from here, and possibly negative.

Finally we come to investor sentiment, which is always the hardest to get a handle on. Moreover, if the markets have a couple of high-flying up days, then psychology can change from being deeply fearful to being deeply greedy overnight. But one solid indicator of market sentiment which has been consistently good is market volatility. High volatility times, even when markets are rising, are times when there’s lots of uncertainty, which is why values seem to change overnight. The best environment for bulls is one where markets make a slow, steady advance, not ones where markets zip up, then down, then up again. And a handy index for this is the Chicago Board Options Exchange SPX Volatility Index, or VIX index (VIX:IND). This index recently reached levels unseen since April of 2009. All told, then, I would suggest that market sentiment is unsettled and nervous, which is definitely bad.

So could markets surprise us on by running away from us on the upside? There’s always that possibility, but I think the odds are pretty small that we will lose a lot by staying on the sidelines. If the market recovered to where it was in May, the S&P 500 could go back to 1360, which would mean we might miss a gain of about 22%. And that’s if the market took off so fast we couldn’t respond. So the risk of being left behind by the market is, in my view, relatively limited.

Possible Positives

Another positive development is that falling stock prices have also brought down commodity prices, notably oil. Since high oil prices act like a tax on the economy, lower oil prices clearly benefit economic growth.

And banks are generally in much better financial condition now than they were in 2007 – except those that have loaned too much to weak European sovereign credits.

Beyond these points, what might is likely to happen to the economy? Well before the phony debt crisis, the outlook for the U.S. economy was disappointing at best, with feeble growth, weak employment, and nothing on the horizon promising to change that. Now the outlook is worse, as I said, so at best we could see the economy return to that slightly depressing, feeble outlook. So, again, the potential to be surprised on the upside, or the return half of the equation, seems limited. Now let’s turn to the potential risks. Alas, here the list is much longer and more compelling.

Potential Negatives

I’m going to list the risks, and merely touch on most of them rather than go into exhaustive detail. The prospects are dreary enough without dwelling on them. I’m going to save the worst ones for last. Here are the major risks that I see now:

• Stocks go down because they go down. Markets develop a mind and momentum of their own, and while I don’t believe you should ever rely on momentum investing, it’s also clear that when investors become fearful, and especially when they panic, it’s dangerous to get in their way. In particular, investors, particularly boomers hoping to retire, were deeply shaken by what happened to their investment portfolios in 2008, and are likely to be faster to bail out on markets rather than try to ride them out. This increases volatility, which, as I’ve said, is a bad thing.

• A possible double-dip recession. There is no real reason why the U.S. economy should go back into recession. I had been expecting it to dribble along in a slow growth, jobless recovery that was disappointing. Now, though, the talk about a double-dip is, as I said, likely to become self-fulfilling. There’s no fundamental reason for it, but the phony debt ceiling crisis shook confidence, and ultimately the economy. And the markets run on confidence.

• America’s downgrade from AAA. This doesn’t help, but it is currently a split rating, with only Standard & Poor’s lowering America’s credit rating, and only on long-term debt. If the two other major agencies, being Moody’s and Fitch’s, were to follow suit, that would be an enormous negative, but that doesn’t seem to be in immediate prospect. Neither, though, is America likely to get its AAA rating back anytime soon. Canada was downgraded from AAA in 1992, and then got it back ten years later. But that was during a period of strong economic and productivity growth, and the Government of Canada, under Prime Minister Jean Chrétien and Finance Minister Paul Martin ran 10 years of budget surpluses, paying off big chunks of government indebtedness. The odds of America doing that are vanishingly small. The only reason American debt has performed as well as it has so far is because, in the words of one commentator, “It’s the best looking horse in the glue factory.”

• Weak economic growth compounding American government indebtedness. The Tea Partiers have overlooked the primary fundamental of government finance: that government revenues and expenditures are inexorably tied to economic performance. A weak economy will sap government revenues and force up expenditures, compounding deficits, and piling up debts. Slashing spending in such an environment cuts jobs, lowers economic growth, and increases deficits. This is precisely what happened in the 1930s under President Herbert Hoover. He and his counterparts in Congress kept slashing spending to try to bring the deficit under control, only to find that economic growth fell further, increasing the deficit. In response, they slashed spending even more. It became a vicious cycle, and this is still the textbook example on how a government can turn a recession into a depression. Unfortunately, right-wing politicians in America seems to be embarking on precisely the same policies now.

• Another negative that has ramifications that go far beyond stock prices is the high rates of unemployment for men and young people. We can see the results in the riots in Greece and Portugal, but now in London as well. In America, the official unemployment rate is 9.1%, but the percentage of working age (16 to 64) American men who are employed has fallen from about 85 percent in the early 1950s to under 65 percent now. Some put the actual unemployment rate of men in America at 25%, and that for young people at 45%. These numbers are hard to confirm, because unemployment surveys don’t include people who are so discouraged that they’ve given up even looking for work. Whatever the true numbers are, this is bad news economically, bad news socially, and bad for America’s future.

• The political deadlock in the American Congress. America has become steadily more polarized over the past 20 years. There have been many analyses of why this is, but I think there are two primary reasons. First, the media have discovered that it is more profitable to be biased and outraged than it is to be balanced and thoughtful. Fox News in America, and News of the World in England are or were the exemplars of this trend. And with the splintering of media caused by the Internet, people can now choose to consume only those viewpoints with which they agree. This creates the echo chamber effect, where like-minded people reinforce their own prejudices. The result is rather like being surrounded by yes-men: you become convinced that your point of view is the only valid one. This pushes people with different viewpoints farther apart, and causes them to summarily dismiss any views that don’t coincide with theirs as being obviously, even maliciously wrong.

The other reason is jerrymandering. As I’ve discussed this at length in another blog (found here), I won’t go through the arguments again. But the result is that the extremes in American politics are being over-represented, and the center is being ignored. According to The Economist newsmagazine (14 April 2011), the results are pretty stark: “On average, House Republicans have voted with their party’s majority 91% of the time and Democrats 90% of the time. The picture is very similar in the Senate.” This is making American ungovernable, as was clearly on display during the unnecessary debt crisis, and an America that cannot govern itself becomes a danger to itself and others, geopolitically as well as economically.

• Finally, the greatest immediate risks out there right now relate to the financial crisis in Europe. Greece is functionally bankrupt, and all that is left is to decide how to cope with the financial mess. The other weak members of the EU are being shunned by the credit markets with more or less justification, but the net result is a potential run on European sovereign credits. The results of this could be very much like the run on Bear Sterns or Lehman Brothers in 2008, with the same kind of knock-on consequences. Worse, this financial crisis could lead to the possible collapse of the Euro as a currency, which would endanger the survival of the EU. And that would be a very big economic (and financial) shock indeed, especially as the world’s central banks don’t have as many resources left to battle a global financial crisis.

The Costs of Being Wrong

So the cost of being too pessimistic is the potential to lose a market gain of perhaps 20-25%. The market cost of being too optimistic would be a repeat of the kind of bear market we saw following the 2008 market panic, which could be a further 40% drop. But the greatest risk is that the problems in Europe and America are compounded by policy mistakes, such as those followed by Herbert Hoover in the 1930s, or a market collapse brought about by forces that overwhelm the world’s central banks, such as the collapse of the European Union with the subsequent economic catastrophe. Either of these could produce a market drop similar to that of the 1929 to 1932 period, which was a fall of 89% would take the S&P 500 down to the vicinity of 170 points – an 85% drop from where it was when I started writing this blog. That, and the very dangerous economic fallout that would come with it, are the real risks.

So if you’re only mildly pessimistic, weigh the potential for a 25% gain against a 40% drop. If you’re really scared, weight that 25% upside against an 85% downside. Add in your assessment of the probabilities of each, and place your bets accordingly. As for me, at the moment, I’m staying on the sidelines and watching the carnage, biting my fingernails all the while.

My last blog dealt with the debt ceiling debate within the U.S. Congress – if “debate” is the word for what looks like a combination of Mexican stand-off and Russian roulette. I’d like to update my comments with some things to watch:

1) August 2nd is probably not the deadline. I believe the actual deadline is unknown, and uncertain. If the rating agencies drop the credit rating on US debt, or the markets start to panic, that will start a chain of events that will probably be irreversible, and trigger a US default. Yet there is a real danger that all three parties involved in this mess (Republicans, Democrats, and the President) actually believe that they have until August 2nd to back away from the abyss. In fact, the ground may collapse under their feet while they’re still posturing on the edge.

2) Suppose that the Speaker of the House of Representatives (John Boehner) and President Obama do arrive at a deal in time. What they may not be counting on is hold-ups by others, such as a defeat of their deal by ideologues within the Republican party in the House, or a filibuster by a disgruntled ideologue of either party in the Senate. This could prevent a deal from passing in time, and could trigger the events described in point 1 above.

3) Even if a deal is struck before panic happens, this event has already caused significant damage, and we won’t know the extent of that damage for months or years. As one of the commentators I follow, a retired money manager who keeps tabs on things for his own interest, put it in an email to me: “a great deal of damage has already been done. Anyone who would have said a year, or even six months ago, that there would be major talk of the US defaulting would have been laughed out of the room. Foreign investors, incl. the central banks, are already ‘voting with their feet’, as witnessed by the price of gold that this morning leapt through the 1,600 level and the fact that last week was the 16th month in succession that assets under management dedicated to emerging market bonds funds were up.” In effect, the United States government has called its own credibility into question, and announced loudly to the world that it is dysfunctional and untrustworthy on financial matters. US debt is no longer “risk free”, and investors will hereafter try to find other, less schizoid places for their money, which will cause U.S. interest rates to rise, further exacerbating the U.S. deficit by increasing interest costs. This is an incredibly dumb action by the U.S. Congress, notably the brain-dead ideologues in the Republican Party.

4) There are members of the Republican party that are saying they won’t vote raise the debt ceiling under any circumstance, which is an ideological statement, not a rational one. There are Republicans who are saying a default would not be as bad as Obama is saying, that he’s fear-mongering. That’s a clear illustration of their ignorance. There are even Republicans who are saying that default would be a good thing because it would force liberals to cut spending – completely overlooking the fact that it would dramatically raise the interest rates the US government would pay, which would raise the total interest costs, which would increase the deficit. It is truly frightening that our collective future is at the mercy of such idiots. Moreover, if a default happens, these same idiots will blame Obama because they always blame Obama.

5) There are only two small pieces of good news of the last week or so. First is that while the American public is condemning all sides on this issue, its greatest condemnation is for the Republicans fanatics. Hopefully this will scare them enough that they will rethink their positions. The other is the bizarre, Rube Goldberg-ian mechanism proposed by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. In effect, it would allow Republicans to vote to give Obama the power to overrule them and raise the debt ceiling. They think that this is somehow different from voting to raise the debt ceiling. The only thing to recommend this wacko idea is that it might lead to the debt ceiling being raised, and rescue the Republicans from themselves.

6) So far, most Democrats have been remarkably silent (or at least unnoticed), but I suspect that some left-wing ideologues will say they won’t vote to raise the debt ceiling if Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid are affected by cuts. These people are as dangerous as the Republican fanatics. The US has no choice but to cut its deficit, as I’ve written elsewhere. Any such Democrats are idiots, too, if they hold to this position.

7) Some have suggested that President Obama has the power to raise the debt ceiling without Congress by virtue of Section 4 of the 14th Amendment, which says “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.” First, I don’t find this unequivocal, but more importantly, how many investors would be willing to take a chance on buying debt that may not be legal, and might subsequently be declared invalid by the U.S. Supreme Court? I think this is a non-starter.

8) The financial markets aren’t reacting more because they don’t think that the Republicans are serious about refusing to raise the debt ceiling, while the Republican fanatics assume that the markets don’t care. Meanwhile, the bond market is torn because investors are so concerned about what’s happening in the EU that many are fleeing to US Treasury issues. Where else is there to go? Both of these effects leave the impression that things are better than they actually are – and may given the parties involved in negotiation more time before a panic occurs.

9) Most of the reactions I’ve had to my blog have been wishful thinking, along the lines of “This can’t happen. This is all posturing. They’ll come to an agreement.” I certainly hope so, but I’m not seeing signs of it. I can only hope that there is real progress being made in the back rooms on this, because everything I see in public pronouncements indicates two sides that are too far apart to reach a deal. And, by the way, through this and other of my blogs, I’ve been ripped as being both a tool of the Republicans (by liberals), and a tax-and-spend liberal (by conservatives). I guess I must be doing something right.

Possible calendar of events to default – or avoidance thereof

Let me offer a possible timetable of events for avoiding a default. Anything worse than this must, I think, lead to default. Anything better may avert it, although that’s not certain:

Thursday, July 21st, 2011 – Markets begin selling off in earnest as time runs out to craft, draft, pass and sign legislation permitting the debt ceiling to rise. (Foreign exchange markets are already starting to move.)

Monday, July 25th, 2011 – One or both of the rating agencies offer one last warning, saying that a ratings downgrade is imminent unless a deal emerges to raise the debt ceiling. As well, both agencies emphasize that raising the debt ceiling alone is not enough; the deficit must be tackled in a realistic manner as well.

Wednesday, July 27th, 2011 – Congressional leaders and President Obama announce the outlines of a deal, forced on them by falling markets, plus a fast-tracking process to get it through both houses of Congress in time. Markets have dropped by about 8% from a week earlier, or more than 1,000 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Friday, July 29th, 2011 – Grandstanding Republican fanatics try to stall or fatally amend the legislation, but are slapped down by Republican leadership. The bill clears the House.

Monday, August 1st, 2011 – Members of both parties attempt to filibuster, delay, or fatally amend an identical bill in the Senate, but are voted down by combined Republican and Democratic Senators. The bill clears the Senate.

The bill goes to Obama to sign. He signs it with the media watching, and thanks leaders of both parties and in both houses of Congress. He also announces a task force with members from both parties to come up with $1.5 trillion in budget cuts and revenue increases over the next 10 years, such cuts to be enacted by the end of 2011, plus a secondary goal of recommending budget cuts and tax code revisions amounting to $4 trillion over the next 12 years, to be enacted after the elections of 2012.

The Federal Reserve announces a special debt issue to provide the government with immediate cash, which it purchases from the Treasury, pending a successful new public bond issue. Critics call this “QE3”, but it’s really about the only way the Treasury can get enough money fast enough to meet obligations – by having the Fed print it.

The markets rally slightly, then begin sinking again more slowly on the continuing crisis in Europe and the weak economy in America. Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s maintain their negative watch on the US credit rating.

—————–

Is this the way it will happen? Certainly not. First of all, I don’t know enough about the process of passing legislation through the US Congress, but I do know that the Treasury Secretary has said they must have a deal by July 22nd in order to get the legislation done. Moreover, there are too many aspects of this very complex future for me to successfully get them right. What I’ve tried to do is come up with an at-the-last-moment scenario to use as a benchmark to see how the process is going. As I said, if the process lags behind this, then a default seems likely.

Just so you know, I am backing my words with actions. I have, at this point, sold or am in the process of selling all of my investment holdings except for (a) precious metals, and (b) a small investment in developing economies. I may sell both of these positions before the dust settles. I am also trying to minimize my holdings of US dollars.

© Copyright, IF Research, July 19th, 2011.

The world as we know it may very well end on August 2^nd. This won’t be the end of the world in a metaphysical or spiritual sense, but rather in a financial and economic one because of the incredible, almost unbelievable stupidity of the extreme members of the Republican Party. These wing-nuts are using the financial equivalent of the threat of nuclear winter to negotiate their agenda of spending cuts, coupled with no tax increases or even tax cuts, to eliminate the U.S. federal deficit, or else. In this case, the “or else” is a refusal to raise the debt ceiling for the U.S. government. If that happened, then the U.S. government would run out of money by about August 2^nd, and begin to default on its obligations. There are two major aspects of this: financial, and political. Let me deal with the financial aspects first.

The debt ceiling is the maximum amount of debt that the U.S. government is allowed to borrow to finance it’s operations, and is legislation originating in the House, approved by the Senate, and passed by the President, like any other financial legislation. The U.S. government cannot borrow any money beyond this authorization. Given the current massive deficit being run up by the American government, this would force the U.S. government to default on its debt. Such a default would produce a vast disruption in the financial markets, and cause America’s credit rating to be downgraded from AAA to AA or less. This, in turn, would require many pension funds and other investment groups required to hold nothing but AAA securities to sell all of their holdings in U.S. government bonds and T-bills. This forced sale would trigger a panic on Wall Street, and in financial centers around the world. U.S. treasury bonds and T-bills are considered the most secure investments in the world – but then, suddenly, they wouldn’t be. Investors would have no idea what was safe, or where they should put their money. And the amount of U.S. securities held by investors, including countries like China, runs into the trillions. If there were a run on U.S. securities, it wouldn’t just be dramatic, it would be cataclysmic because there would be nobody to buy them.

And it wouldn’t just be the U.S. federal government. All of its agencies and the agencies it supports would be downgraded (and their securities dumped). And it’s quite possible that a number of state governments would also be downgraded as well. Indeed, as anyone who has studied financial panics of the past (as I have) knows, once a panic starts, the mob sells anything with any hint or rumor of possible financial difficulties. As a result, the panic would instantly spread to all of the shaky sovereign credits of Europe (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Belgium, and more), and move into American state governments (Illinois, California, and more), and into corporations thought to be less than rock solid. Eventually, everything would become suspect, and gold and precious metals would shoot through the roof.

This would cause a huge spike in interest rates, causing stock prices to collapse, and, worst of all, would critically damage investor confidence. Since all investment markets rely on confidence, this could produce a panic as severe, or worse, than the panic that seized Wall Street in October of 2008. Worse than that, there would be no U.S. Federal Reserve to save the markets from themselves. They wouldn’t have any money with which to operate, and whereas the U.S. government was seen as the only possible savior in the Panic of 2008, it would be the cause of the problem this time. With no one left to act as “lender of last resort,” it’s entirely possible that financial markets around the world would collapse, possibly triggering a depression on the scale of the 1930s or worse. We really do not know how bad it would be – only that it would be unprecedented, and very, very scary.

But if the consequences are potentially so extreme, why are the markets not reflecting this? Let’s run over the potential counter-arguments.

“This is all just negotiating tactics. They won’t allow a default to happen.”

Perhaps so, but playing chicken while driving a truck full of nitroglycerine over rocky terrain doesn’t leave you much room for mistakes. Moreover, I’m not sure that the players involved are smart enough to understand the magnitude of the problem, and they could easily misjudge the situation. Even if they are planning to come to a last minute compromise, it’s not clear that the markets will wait that long. The rating agencies have already warned that if they don’t see a settlement by mid-July, they could downgrade U.S. securities, even without a default. Since a negotiating posture is only effective if you make the other side believe that you’re serious, the Republicans will have to act as if they are prepared to allow a default if they don’t get what they want. In so doing, they may also convince the rating agencies of the same thing, triggering the kind of run on Treasuries that I described above.

Moreover, the markets might get spooked before the rating agencies can act. The thing that scares investors most is uncertainty. If the biggest, most important financial entity in the world suddenly looks shaky, investors might suddenly decide that they need to run for the hills. Once a panic starts, it would be very difficult to stop.

“The U.S. government can’t possibly be this stupid. This is all show. It’ll blow over.”

Not true, and there’s precedent to prove it. On June 17^th, 1930, President Herbert Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 into law, raising tariffs on 20,000 imported items, and triggering a massive trade war that caused global trade to drop by two-thirds in a period of four years. Yet, Hoover had been warned by over 1,000 of America’s most eminent economists. He had been intensively lobbied by Henry Ford, who called the bill “economic stupidity.” The CEO of banking giant J.P. Morgan begged Hoover not to sign the bill – but he did, for political reasons.

Make no mistake, this is a very, very dangerous situation – a big, honkin’ Black Swan if there ever was one – that is comparable to the massive error of passing Smoot-Hawley. So don’t count on the government coming to its senses. History argues that governments sometimes do stupid things for ideological and political reasons.

“You’re exaggerating. The effects of a temporary halt in payments couldn’t possibly be this extreme.”

Who knows? This has never happened before. Once the U.S. government has failed to live up to its responsibilities for any reason, and for any period of time no matter how short, it will be impossible to regain the “full faith and credit” of a borrower that is beyond suspicion. Indeed, the rating agencies have a policy of automatically downgrading the ratings of a borrower that fails to live up to all of its obligations, if any investors lose money through delayed or halted payments of interest or principal. At time of writing, for instance, Standard & Poor’s has just warned that if Greece extends the payment schedule on its debts, as is being discussed within the EU as a possible solution to Greece’s debt problems, that would constitute a default and trigger a downgrade. And the rating agencies are still smarting from being accused (correctly) of not being tough enough on issuers in the asset-backed securities markets prior to 2008. They won’t want to be seen to be committing the same mistake again so soon, regardless of the consequences.

Perhaps I’m wrong, but as a former credit analyst, and one who used to assess sovereign credits for a living, I don’t believe I am. Moreover, those who pooh-pooh the consequences have no basis or evidence for their assertions. It is wishful thinking, pure and simple.

“This is nonsense. It can’t happen. They won’t let it. This just isn’t possible.”

Who’s “they”? This is just more wishful thinking, and is comparable to pulling the covers over your head to ward off danger while the house is on fire.

“You’re being irresponsible by talking about this. You’re going to create a panic by doing so.”

No, the irresponsible, brain-dead idiots at the extremes of the Republican party are running that risk. I’m just talking about the potential consequences of their actions. Besides, I’m not the first, nor am I the most important person to discuss it. The rating agencies have issued very forceful (for them) statements on this. The Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, has said this is dangerous folly (although not in those words). The International Monetary Fund has warned that this is an irresponsible and exceedingly dangerous path that could cause a “severe shock” to the American and global economies. The current Secretary of the Treasury, Tim Geithner, has said that it would be “catastrophic”, and even one of George W. Bush’s economic advisors, Keith Hennessey, has publicly said that he’s “terrified” at the prospect. I doubt if my comments will make much difference – except to my readers. For them, I hope it helps them prepare contingency plans in case the unthinkable happens.

“A default would actually be helpful, as it would force America’s government to face the reality of its financial position.”

Nope. As I’ve already said, it would trigger an absolute panic and bankrupt the government, which would then be forced to make long-term policy on the basis of emergency conditions. It would have to make bad choices, possibly even very bad choices, because better choices would no longer be available. Tackling the deficit is going to be tough. Trying to do it while simultaneously trying to keep the global financial markets and global economy from complete collapse would be impossible. This is just a bad idea.

“This is Obama’s fault. He’s the one that’s being unreasonable. We have to bring down the deficit, and this is the only way to force liberals to cut spending.”

Presidents and Congresses have disagreed about critical issues before, but no one has ever used the debt ceiling as a threat, and it is the Republican extremists that are doing so. This is on all fours with strapping a bomb to your chest, and threatening to blow everyone up if you don’t get exactly what you want. It’s no less threatening, and no less extreme than that, and it is Republican extremists that are doing it, which brings me to the political dimension of things.

I grew up in the Republican party. My father was a die-hard Republican, and I was raised that way. I voted that way when I first started voting. Since then, I’ve voted more discerningly and hopefully more thoughtfully for candidates that I thought were the best (or least-worst) choices, both Republican and Democrat. But this is not my father’s (or my) Republican party. The current Republican party seems to have been captured by fanatics who believe that ideological purity is more important than reality. They are spoiled children, throwing a tantrum to get what they want, and endangering us all in the process.

And those who have regularly read my blog know that I believe the U.S. budget deficit must be tackled, hard choices must be made, and sooner rather than later. But what the Republican extremists are demanding is that a process that should be thoughtfully devised, then carefully negotiated, and implemented over a period of years in order to minimize the necessary harm inflicted must, instead, be accomplished overnight, and that all the costs must be borne by someone else’s constituents, not theirs. Some of these extremists have even demanded tax cuts be part of the deal, even though such cuts would increase the deficit, not decrease it. They are clinging to an ideology as defunct as Soviet Communism, and pointing to the Reagan tax cuts as being self-financing, even though Reagan’s own budget director, David Stockman, has said that tax cuts in today’s environment would be a bad mistake. Indeed, in talking about extending the Bush tax cuts during the 2010 debate, Mr. Stockman said that the Republican position was “Utterly disingenuous. I find it unconscionable that the Republican leadership faced with a 1.5 trillion deficit could possibly believe that good public policy is to maintain tax cuts for the top 2 percent of the population”.

But extremists don’t want to hear that, and so they don’t listen. They have substituted ideology for thought or reason. They are ideologues as blind as any group of religious fanatics, except they could cause much greater harm to a much larger group of people, both at home and abroad.

“Forcing the government into default is the best way to make sure we’ll beat Obama in 2012.”

I haven’t actually read any reports where someone has said this, but some Republicans seem to be thinking it awfully loudly. If I’m right in thinking this, then it is a morally bankrupt attitude, verging on treason. It amounts to saying that you are willing to crash the American economy, trigger a collapse of the world banking system, and bankrupt many American citizens for selfish political gain. It would be like deliberately losing a war in order to win the presidency.

“So, what should we do about it? If the situation is as bad as you say, what’s the answer?”

Now we come to the reason for this blog: to offer some thoughts about what individuals should do to prepare for this possible black swan event.

The first thing to do is to hope that the participants are more intelligent than I give them credit for, and resolve this issue quickly, before they spook the markets or the rating agencies. If they wait too long, it may be too late, so August 2^nd (or sometime that week) may be the outside deadline; the markets might panic before than. And writing to your Congresscritter wouldn’t hurt. Tell them that Congress & the president need to come up with a credible plan for reducing the deficit through painful spending cuts, tax increases, and especially through reductions to Social Security & Medicare entitlements, but that not raising the debt ceiling is not a legitimate negotiating tactic.

Next, watch the news for developments. Assuming that we can’t influence the participants (and they seem impervious to argument no matter who offers it), then you need to prepare yourself for the worst. You needn’t do it all at once, but make sure you stay ahead of the market’s perception of a crisis. And this is where systematic risk management comes into play.

In this situation, we are running two opposing kinds of risk: the risk that there will be a panic, market collapse, and massive recession or depression; and the risk that the U.S. won’t default, that a crisis will be avoided, and the markets will continue to advance. Let me deal with the second risk first.

If a crisis is averted, and the world carries on with business as usual (which is what I devoutly hope will happen), then the market will carry on as if nothing important happened. As the stock market has been rising of late, it’s possible that if you sold holdings in advance of a possible crisis, you could forego potential capital gains by liquidating your holdings. This is a potential opportunity cost, but not a large risk. Suppose the S&P 500 were to regain its previous 2008 high before you could manage to buy back into the market. This means it would have to run up by about 16% in a very short period of time. So, on the extreme high end of things, the second risk is that you might forego about a 16% gain from where we are today – and that’s assuming that the market keeps going up, and actually goes up much faster than it has of late. I think this is highly unlikely, but let’s leave it at that: the risk of missing an upside move by the markets is foregoing a 16% increase in your portfolio.

The Default Risk

Now let’s consider the first risk: that, intentionally or not, by August 2^nd or somewhat before or after, the U.S. government defaults on its obligations, and that triggers a panic. What would be the financial risk if you don’t prepare for that possibility?

Well, first, how far might the market fall? In the market panic of 2008, the S&P 500 fell more about 54% from its October 4^th high. The stock market crash of 1929 was slightly worse, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index (“DJII”) falling on the order of 58%.

But the initial market crash of 1929 is not the biggest risk; the potential for a prolonged severe recession or depression is. Indeed, the stock market decline from 1930 to 1932 was actually worse than the crash of 1929, with the DJII falling 79% from the market low of 1929 to the market bottom in 1932. All told, from the 1929 high to the 1932 low, the DJII lost an incredible 89% in value. And that is, in my opinion, the comparable risk investors run from a potential default, aside from any economic damage they might incur, such as losing their income or their home.

So, now we come to the issue of risk assessment: Which is the greater risk? Missing out on a potential 16% investment gain from here, or losing 89% of the value of your current portfolio from here, plus experiencing significant economic suffering? Remember that the markets are largely ignoring the closed-door discussions on raising the debt ceiling, so that if a deal is announced, it is unlikely that the stock market will blast off to that 16% gain in a short period of time, whereas if a default occurs, everyone will thunder for the exits at the same time. In my mind, there is no comparison: it is far riskier to ignore the potential for a default than it is to forego the potential for gain.

So What Actions Should You Take to Prepare?

If you concur with my assessment, what do you sell, what do you buy, and how do you prepare? I’d start by selling investments that have done well for you, but may have limited upside from here. You can always reinvest later if the crisis passes. If the days tick by, and there is still no word of settlement, I’d start selling more earnestly, including things that perhaps you don’t feel have done as well as they should. Remember that the rating agencies have warned that they are expecting to see a settlement by the middle of July. If no such signals emerge, they may start being more vocal, and the markets may become more unsettled.

If, by the third week of July, there is no sign of a settlement, and the two sides continue to say they are deadlocked, it’s time to take serious defensive action. Sell any investment that is not a disaster scenario holding. Perhaps even sell money market funds to hold cash. And check the terms and conditions on your financial accounts. Following the banking crisis of the Great Depression, financial institutions added clauses that give them the option to require 3-5 day’s notice of a withdrawal. Just because they have waived that requirement for almost 80 years doesn’t mean that it’s not there, so check with your banker or broker.

In the extreme, if it seems likely that a disaster is going to happen, think about what you think will hold its value. This starts with gold & precious metals, but also think about how you want to hold it. If you have investments in a mutual fund that invests in precious metals, and the company that runs that fund goes bankrupt, what will the value of your holding be? Cash is likely to be worth having, or being able to get hold of quickly – but who’s cash? Do you want US dollars? And always keep in mind safety. Do you really want to have bunches of cash under your mattress? What about the risk of fire or theft? How do you want to deal with that? These are issues that deserve some serious consideration.

And if a deal is struck “at the last minute” (whenever that might be), and there is no default, and no run on the markets, then what? Then you take a long look at the risks as they are at that time, and, if you’re convinced that the risks are now on the upside (i.e., that you might lose more by missing a major market advance than remaining on defense), then unwind your defensive positions, and go back to your investments.

If I’m overreacting to the potential risks, and life goes on as usual instead, it will have cost you some money in transaction costs, and you might possibly forego some upside on your investments. If I’m correct in my assessment of the risks, then taking a defensive position may make the difference between financial survival or not.

And, for the record, I sincerely hope a deal is struck. I may wind up looking foolish, rather like Chicken Little screaming that the sky is falling, but I would prefer that result to the horrors of being proven right. If it’s a choice between pride and survival, I’ll pick survival. But I’d be prepared for either one.

© Copyright, IF Research, July 5th, 2011.

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There’s an unusual amount of dissension among economists and other commentators about whether we’re heading towards higher inflation or devastating deflation, and whether the economy will continue to grow, or slip into a double-dip recession. This is happening because we are in uncharted waters, with few, if any, precedents to guide us.

My own view is that the American economy will continue its anemic growth in a mostly jobless recovery; that the prices of necessities, particularly food and energy, will continue to tick upwards, gnawing away at workers’ real take-home pay; and that the economy’s precarious growth could be tipped over into a renewed recession by one of several different crises. I believe, in short, that all of the scenarios described above are possible. So, how do you plan for the future, whether it’s your investment portfolio or your company’s marketing plans?

Let’s start by looking at the various different forces at work on the economy today.

Inflation

Those concerned about inflation are connecting dots and concluding that inflation or even hyperinflation are ahead of us. They see the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (the “Fed”) pour newly-printed money into the economy via so-called quantitative easing, and they watch oil and food prices rise, and decide that one is causing the other. And since monetary inflation, caused by printing too much money, affects all prices, oil and food prices are merely harbingers of a much broader, more rampant inflation. This is not the case because these two dots aren’t, in fact, connected.

The Fed is, indeed, printing money, but it’s a kind of money with a relatively low inflation potential. Normally, the Fed, or any central bank, creates money by encouraging the banking system to create it. They do this by lowering reserve requirements, or by lower interest rates. Reserve requirements are the amount of cash that banks must hold for every dollar of money they loan out. Since this requirement is a small fraction of the loans on their books, every dollar in increased cash reserves creates many dollars loaned out and placed into the economy. Likewise, lowering interest rates makes it more attractive for corporations and individuals to borrow money, increasing the loans outstanding, which again multiplies the amount of money in the economy. This is high-impact money.

What the Fed is doing is almost literally printing money, then using it to pay the government’s bills. (There’s a bookkeeping entry where the U.S. Treasury issues bonds, then the Fed buys the bonds for cash, which the Treasury then uses to pay bills. Hence, the U.S. government borrows from itself, and prints money as a result.) But while this money winds up in the economy, the effect is only of the amount of money printed, not some multiple of that amount. This is a technical issue, but the effect is that while, yes, there is some inflationary effect from the Fed’s quantitative easing, it is nowhere near as important as the inflation hawks fear, especially in an economy where demand is weak, and there is virtually no leverage for workers to increase their wage demands.

Meanwhile, the prices of food and oil are going up because of the supply and demand for food and oil, without reference to the amount of money being created in the United States. Hence, the prices of food and oil are going up even in Japan, which is experiencing persistent deflation, not inflation. Both are global commodities, and the demand for both is being driven by the rapid expansion of the Rapidly Developing Countries (“RDCs”), like China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia. Hence, in an example I’ve used before (because it’s so compelling), China’s middle class expanded dramatically during the 40 years from 1960 to 2000, with the result that China’s food consumption tripled in forty years. As the developed world economies emerged from recession (albeit slowly), and added their demand to that of the RDCs, the demand for both rose faster than the supply, pushing prices up.

Unless the developed world slips back into recession, or the growth of the RDCs slow significantly, the prices of both food and oil will continue to move up.

Deflation

Deflation is a widespread, persistent decline in prices, and is actually more dangerous than inflation (although neither are desirable). To see this, consider what happens if you’re considering buying a new car, but believe that the price will go down if you wait a month. Chances are you and others like you will postpone your purchase. A month later, if you are proven correct, but believe that the price of the car  you want will fall further in the next month, you’re likely, again, to wait to buy the car. Hence, deflation creates a vicious, downward spiral: people postpone purchases, which lowers demand, which causes prices to fall, which cause people to postpone purchases. When entrenched, deflation can wreak havoc on an economy – as has happened with Japan. Japan has experienced almost 20 years of recession-like non-growth in part because of deflation. (The Japanese government has also made persistent policy mistakes that have prevented the economy from breaking out of this cycle.)

So, are we likely to experience the same kind of persistent, widespread declines in prices? Based on what I’ve said above, not in oil and food, but what about beyond that?  In many ways that depends on what happens to the economy. If the U.S. economy continues to grow, even weakly, then the prospect of serious deflation is remote. I could see the possibility of weakness in discretionary consumer purchases, such as TVs and consumer electronics, if employment growth remains weak. When people are hurtin’ financially, they’re less likely to splurge on a large luxury item. So let’s turn to the prospects of a renewed recession, which is the scenario where I can see widespread deflation.

Recession

There are several reasons why this recovery is weak. First, it was provoked by a severe financial debacle, and such recessions typically take longer to recover from as people feel poorer. It will take time – years – for people to rebuild their balance sheets, and meanwhile, demand will remain weak.

Next, there is no group within the economy to really stimulate demand. Most recoveries are lead by the consumer, but as I’ve just said, that’s not happening this time. Governments, notably the U.S. federal government, have largely shot their bolts, and are now more worried about repairing their balance sheets. And businesses, which are actually in pretty good financial shape as a group, see no reason to overextend themselves. In particular, businesses are not eager to take on more staff. Instead, they are either asking their current employees to work longer hours or take on additional shifts as demand slowly rises, or they are investing in increasingly sophisticated automation. The knock-on effect of this is that employment is likely to stay weak. In total, then, this is a recovery without leadership.

A longer-term problem is that all countries are going to experience a squeeze in employment growth, but it will be particularly noticeable in the developed countries. First, a global economy implies a global labor force, which means that workers in Canada or America, for instance, are competing with workers everywhere. It used to be most noticeable in low-skilled industries, but as RDCs increase the number of highly educated people they have, and as they build up more sophisticated commercial bases, they are competing in broader swaths of the global workplace, including very highly skilled areas that used to be the exclusive preserve of rich countries. Meanwhile, in an attempt to minimize the differential in labor costs, companies in developed countries are automating as quickly as they can. This is helping in that companies that might otherwise go out of business are surviving, but even when they do, it means that they do so with fewer employees. Hence the economy will grow faster than the number of jobs.

Automation is also affecting RDC economies and workers as well, but their faster rate of GDP growth is masking the effects. Still, the Chinese government worries about not creating enough jobs to maintain social stability.

But beyond economic growth and employment growth, there’s another factor that’s in play: the fragility of governments, notably because of their heavy debt loads, means that the recovery is not as robust. It also means that the recovery would be easier to derail, much as an overloaded boat is easier to sink.

This brings me to my major point: we are vulnerable to nasty surprises or shocks. If, for example, Greece defaults on it’s debts (or perhaps I should say “when” as it seems pretty inevitable to me), this could trigger a re-evaluation of all sovereign and sub-sovereign (i.e., state and local) debts. This might throw a jurisdiction like California or Illinois into the spotlight, or trigger a run on Portuguese bonds. It could, in short, trigger a panic that could produce another financial catastrophe. Only this time, governments have fewer bullets available to stop a financial stampede, and we could well see the financial collapse that we so very, very narrowly avoided in 2009.

Is this likely? Probably not, but the odds of it happening are higher than I would like. And if a scenario like that does happen, then deflation is a real threat, and you can forget about inflation because even the RDC economies will slow or go into reverse.

So what do we do now?

The highest probability is still for continued economic growth in the developed world, albeit slower than we would like, and that’s how I’m placing my bets right now. I believe that the cost of necessities will continue to rise, but that it won’t degenerate into high, widespread inflation. This is consistent with a slow growth scenario coupled with rising demand from RDCs.

But I’m also watching developments very carefully, and have an exit strategy in mind in case I don’t like the way things develop in Europe, with the foolish, almost-suicidal discussions over the U.S. federal debt ceiling, and with credit watches on shaky governments (both national and American states). I’ve been saying this for some time, and it may be that readers are getting bored with the message, but this is a time to plan for the worst, and hope for the best. I’m not sure, in the current situation, what else you can do.

© Copyright, IF Research, June 2011.

‘America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.’
– Abraham Lincoln

Unless America and Americans force a drastic change in the country’s direction, the American dream is dead, and America’s place as the leader of the world is over. I find this intensely distressing and worrisome, and have hopes that the situation may yet be retrieved, but the time available is short. Americans have repeatedly overcome fearsome odds throughout their history to survive and thrive, but if there were ever a time when they needed true grit, self-sacrifice, and a willingness to cooperate with other Americans of different backgrounds, politics, and beliefs, it is now.

To put it bluntly, America is hurtling towards bankruptcy. This is not due only to the Obama administration, or the administration of George W. Bush, but to American presidents dating all the way back to FDR, and the Congresses that accompanied them. There are two major reasons for this coming disaster, one short-term, and the other longer-term.

A massive deficit at the worst possible time in history

The short-term cause is the massive federal deficit. George W. Bush inherited the biggest budget surplus in history and turned it into the biggest deficit in history, and at exactly the worst possible time because of the aging of the oversized population of baby boomers. The boomers selfishly expect their governments to give them more than they have contributed, and get downright nasty when told they can’t have what they want. Bush also inherited a trend towards greater deregulation from Bill Clinton, and accelerated that trend, believing, wrongly, that the financial industry, among others, could be trusted to regulate itself. This is like expecting a greedy kid to regulate himself in a candy store. The events of 2007 & 2008 proved this policy to be both stupid and irresponsible. The resulting financial catastrophe could have led to a complete collapse of the global financial system, and only the massive intervention by virtually all central banks, coupled with unprecedented fiscal stimulus, prevented a complete collapse that would have resulted in a new, world-wide, Great Depression.

The Obama administration inherited this unholy mess, and is not responsible for it, but has not dealt with it well either, leaving too much of a leadership role to a Democratic Congress that too often substituted ideology and partisan politics for sound economics. Obama hasn’t been helped by the Republicans in Congress either, who seem to think that the president is their enemy, and anything they can do to harm him is good, regardless of the consequences for the country.

Yet, my point here is not just the deficits themselves; they are unfortunate but necessary in the short term to stave off a much worse economic crisis. My concern is that the stimulus spending has been directed more towards lobbyist-inspired pork than creating a solid underpinning for recovery. This is a self-indulgent luxury America can no longer afford. It is, alas, far too early to restrain spending, no matter what Tea Party enthusiasts may say. There will come a time for this, but it is not yet.

The scale of borrowing threatens both American and global stability

However they occurred, these deficits will require massive borrowing by the federal government: the Obama administration estimates the U.S. government will need to borrow $10 trillion over the next 10 years. Most commentators say that assumes higher levels of economic growth than are likely, and higher tax increases and deeper spending cuts than Congress will accept, and so are unrealistically low. I’ve seen estimates that place the borrowing requirements (which are remarkably difficult to pin down) as high as $9 trillion over the next 5 years. For the moment, let’s assume that the administration’s figure is correct, and place it in perspective.

China is America’s biggest external lender, and holds almost $2 trillion in foreign reserves. Let’s assume, for the sake of simplicity, that all of China’s holdings are in U.S. dollars, and all of those are in U.S. treasury bonds and bills. This isn’t true, but let’s make that assumption anyway. China has already expressed concern over the amount that America has borrowed, and is borrowing, and is diversifying away from U.S. securities; so how willing will they be to buy that much and more in U.S. debt over the next decade? And who else in the world will have enough in investable funds to buy U.S. debt? Financing of this magnitude has never been done before, and there may simply not be enough investment money to do it. And even if there is, there’s very little certainty that lenders will continue to funnel money to an increasingly debt-heavy American government. The federal government already has proportionately more debt than at any time in its history outside of times of war, and Moody’s rating agency has publicly expressed its belief that America in danger of losing it’s AAA credit rating. (This, on its own, may have severe consequences, which I’ll come back to in a later blog.)

If America cannot borrow the money it needs, then it becomes insolvent. The checks it writes will bounce, which could lead to a financial panic even greater than that of 2008, and one that no central bank or group of central banks will be able to stem, leading to an economic nuclear winter. (I’ve dealt with this prospect in an earlier blog, “WILD CARD WARNING”, published June 3rd, 2009.)

The rapidly approaching Social Security disaster

But the longer-term reason is even more dangerous. Both the U.S. Federal Reserve, America’s central banker, and the Government Accounting Office (GAO), America’s financial watchdog, have publicly stated that the unfunded liabilities of the U.S. government for Social Security and all forms of medical insurance, including Medicare, Medicaid, and Veteran’s Administration coverage, amount to approximately $100 trillion and are unsupportable. To see this, America’s total economic output (GDP) is about $14 trillion per year, so this $100 trillion figure amounts to roughly 7 times the nation’s entire annual income – a horrendous and unmanageable amount. Yet, when George W. Bush attempted a modest (if somewhat misguided) reform of Social Security, all he got was nasty complaints from selfish boomers, violent rhetoric from Congress, and reams of bad press. And these ticking time bombs have much shorter fuses than most people realize.

If you look at the Social Security Online Actuarial Publications website, you will see an extraordinary statement in the second paragraph:

“The financial condition of the Social Security and Medicare programs remains challenging. Projected long run program costs are not sustainable under current program parameters. Social Security’s annual surpluses of tax income over expenditures are expected to fall sharply this year and to stay about constant in 2010 because of the economic recession, and to rise only briefly before declining and turning to cash flow deficits beginning in 2016 that grow as the baby boom generation retires. The deficits will be made up by redeeming trust fund assets until reserves are exhausted in 2037, at which point tax income would be sufficient to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits through 2083.”

As bad as this sounds, it’s actually much worse. The ‘trust fund assets’ that the Social Security Administration is talking about redeeming are bonds and T-bills issued by the federal government. When 2016 rolls around, and Social Security starts ‘redeeming’ these ‘trust funds,’ it will be making demands on the government of the United States. In turn, the federal government can only redeem these securities in one of three ways:

• Raising taxes,


• Cutting spending, or


• Borrowing even more in the public markets.

Given the federal government’s current perilous financial position, any of these three choices will be painful at best, and potentially disastrous at worst.

As an aside, we could, and should, ask the obvious question: What happened to all the surpluses in the Social Security system in the decades that led to the build up of the so-called ‘trust assets’? Answer: Congress spent them and handed the Social Security Administration IOUs in return.

And Medicare is even worse

In the same paragraph, the Social Security Administration goes on to comment on the status of Medicare:

“Medicare’s financial status is much worse. As was true in 2008, Medicare’s Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund is expected to pay out more in hospital benefits and other expenditures this year than it receives in taxes and other dedicated revenues. The difference will be made up by redeeming trust fund assets. Growing annual deficits are projected to exhaust HI reserves in 2017, after which the percentage of scheduled benefits payable from tax income would decline from 81 percent in 2017 to about 50 percent in 2035 and 30 percent in 2080. In addition, the Medicare Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund that pays for physician services and the prescription drug benefit will continue to require general revenue financing and charges on beneficiaries that grow substantially faster than the economy and beneficiary incomes over time.”

Translating this into English, Medicare is bankrupt, but keeps operating by soaking up current tax revenues to fund it, increasing the effective size of the deficit that needs to be financed. It also means that the benefits people are expecting will have to be cut drastically – undoubtedly accompanied by much squawking, finger-pointing, and political posturing as president and Congress-critters all try to deflect the huge amount of blame.

Ironically, the new health care bill just signed into law may actually ease the situation slightly, because now government-funded insurance will fund the young and healthy as well as the old, poor, and sickly. That’s how insurance is intended to operate: by spreading the risks. But this change will be well short of what is necessary to avert disaster, and was so botched in the compromises necessary to get it passed that the benefits will be far less than they should be.

Now let’s be clear: the problems with Social Security and Medicare are not the failure of the Obama administration, nor of the Bush administration before it, but of all administrations and Congresses since the 1960s, and even before that. It was always politically easier to ignore the growing problems, and leave them to the next generation of politicians. Now the problems are arriving, and there will be hell to pay. To my mind, the last politician that had the courage to attempt to deal with these issues was New York’s Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, who raised the age when boomers could collect Social Security. He is, unfortunately, now dead, and no one else has had the guts to step forward and tackle these problems.

Are these problems too big to solve?

So are these problems solvable? Maybe, but only with immediate, Herculean efforts, unprecedented cooperation between Republicans and Democrats, and a willingness to sacrifice and accept less by the American people. I would think this makes solutions unlikely.

Indeed, I would say that America’s financial problems can only be solved if it solves two other, unrelated problems, one political, and the other societal.

Republicans and Democrats conspire together against democracy

The first problem is the polarization of the American political system because of gerrymandering. (See related blog post.) Gerrymandering is a term we all learned in high school social studies, but which most of us have forgotten. But Congress has not forgotten it. Gerrymandering is the re-drawing of the boundaries of electoral districts to create as many safe seats as possible – that is, where the same party will almost invariably be elected. Republicans and Democrats have connived together to do just this, and the Supreme Court has given them a limited seal of approval. The result is that in normal times, the vast majority of incumbent members of the House of Representatives cannot be defeated in a general election. The Economist newsmagazine once commented that America’s record of re-electing incumbents to the House would do credit to the dictatorship of North Korea.

This means that a Republican in a safe seat cannot be defeated by a Democrat, so his political spectrum goes from the center to the extreme right wing. And a Democrat in a safe seat cannot be defeated by a Republican, so her political spectrum goes from the center to the extreme left wing. This has two unsavory results: First, it means that the majority of voters in the center are not represented at all. And second, it pushes the two parties further and further apart, so that they cannot agree on anything, and gridlock results. That’s where we are today.

What is necessary is for the drawing of electoral district boundaries to be taken away from politicians eager to protect their own seats, and given to non-partisan committees that draw boundaries based on geography and similar needs rather than voting patterns. This has been done successfully in a number of jurisdictions, such as Washington state, and defeated by political machines elsewhere, as in California. But without this kind of non-partisan protection of the American people, the country as a whole is being stage-managed for the benefit and security of the politicians and the political party machines, and not in the best interests of the country. If the Tea Party movement wants a real and important target, this should be it.

The dumbing of America

The second fundamental issue is America’s education system, which has many problems. These include those teachers’ unions that block progress to protect their prerogatives and power (but not necessarily the interests of their members); helicopter parents that verbally and even physically assault and intimidate teachers; students who are more dedicated to fun than learning; violence and drugs, which turn schools into armed camps, forcing students to worry more about their own safety than what they learn; and a culture that now glorifies winning at any cost, including cheating, and elevates sports and entertainment success over academics. Most school systems are such a mess that it’s hard to know where to start to improve them, but the result is that America is producing generations of citizens who neither know nor care about their own history; who believe that America will always be right, and will always be #1 without thought, effort, or sacrifice; and who are uninterested in the common welfare of anyone other than themselves, and have no concept of civic duty. Unfortunately, the odds of a widespread improvement in American education are, if anything, even less likely than a balanced budget, and even if such a miracle were to occur, it would take years to change America’s direction. Yet, even so, if America wants to continue to prosper, it must both improve its education systems, and its citizens must rediscover their dedication to education excellence. Without this, in the long run, nothing else will matter.

Does America still have what it takes?

The financial problems America faces are severe, potentially the worst in its history. To solve them will require higher taxes and cuts to the military to be sponsored by Republicans, and spending cuts and reductions in entitlements to be sponsored by Democrats. It will take the postponement of eligibility for Social Security and Medicare benefits for boomers as well as a reduction in benefits provided, plus the end of ‘gimme-gimme’ pork-barrel politics. It calls, in short, for sacrifice. The alternative is disaster, and the end of America.

America’s problems threaten the stability of the world’s financial system, and the global economy. They also threaten America’s leadership of the world, which has, in the main, been remarkable for its enlightenment and goodness. There are other countries waiting in the wings, notably America’s chief banker, China, who are eager to replace America as the dominant force in the world. If Americans do not immediately begin to grapple with its problems, then both the idea that is America, and the country that is the fact of America will crash with such force and violence that it may lead to the end of America as a coherent society, as well as precipitating a second global depression. The stakes are high. The time is short. And the critical question is: Does America still have the will to be the best?

© Copyright, Richard Worzel, March 2010.

The polarization of American politics is evident from the way that Republicans and Democrats seem to loathe each other. They scream at their counterparts; they rant for the cameras; their surrogates in the press besmirch each other as worse than foreign enemies. Indeed, the fact that John McCain, the unsuccessful Republican nominee for president, in his concession speech urged his followers to support Barrack Obama as president, was seen as a betrayal by Republicans. And the fact that President Obama has tried to reach out to moderate Republicans at times is seen as a betrayal by the Left, and an attempt to colonize and domesticate the center of American politics by the Right. (Let’s ignore, for the moment, that broadening your base is smart politics, and frankly what any smart president or national leader should do. The fact that George W. Bush made no attempt to reach out beyond his narrow, partisan base, save in the dying days of his administration, is merely one of many pieces of evidence that confirms my belief that he wasn’t a smart president. It has also left his party in dire straits.)

Now, American politics has always been a blood sport, right back to the conflicts between Jefferson and Adams, Hamilton and Aaron Burr, or Lincoln and Stephen Douglas. I can remember the first presidential election I was old enough to be aware of, Eisenhower versus Stevenson in 1956, where the popular jingle that made the rounds was crudely partisan: “Whistle while you work; Stevenson’s a jerk; Eisenhower’s got my power, so whistle while you work.” (My folks were Republicans.) But what’s happening today is much worse, dangerous to Americans and the rest of the world as well, and it all comes back to something we learned about in high-school social studies: gerrymandering.

The art of gerrymandering

Gerrymandering is the art of re-drawing electoral districts for the express purpose of benefiting a specific group, whether political, racial, economic, or otherwise, and it’s not a pretty concept. It basically seeks to screw those that do not fit into the group being favored by isolating them in a district whose boundaries make it difficult or impossible to defeat the representative of the favored group. Hence, a district that elects a member of the U.S. House of Representatives which has boundaries that effectively make it a safe seat for the Democratic Party disenfranchises all Republicans (and others) in that district, because only Democrats will be elected. And gerrymandering is being actively practiced in drawing the boundaries of members of the House of Representatives, with the connivance of both Republicans and Democrats, and with the limited approval of the U.S. Supreme Court. The Court ruled in 2006, hypocritically in my opinion, that it is OK to bias elections in the favor of Democrats or Republicans, but you cannot bias them on the basis of race. I’m sure this makes sense to someone (like the Supremes), but it makes no sense to me. However, my opinion counts for nothing, so gerrymandering is the law of the land in American national politics (and many states as well). What’s more, computer analysis and detailed demographic data has allowed the political parties to draw exquisitely precise district boundaries to create as many safe seats as possible (and to look as grotesque as you can imagine). Hence, in the 2006 mid-term Congressional elections, something like 96% of all incumbents who chose to run were re-elected – a record that The Economist newsmagazine said would have done credit to North Korea.

So what?

Now let’s look at the implications of this. First, it artificially polarizes American politics, and disenfranchises those Americans who are moderate – which, depending on how you look at it, is close to a majority. In a Republican safe district, the Republican incumbent cannot be defeated by a Democrat; he (or she) can only be defeated by another Republican in the primaries. This means that the entire political spectrum for anyone wishing to be the Republican nominee is from the center to the extreme right-wing. Likewise, in a Democratic safe district, the Democratic incumbent can’t be defeated by a Republican, only by another Democrat, which means that their political spectrum is from the center to the extreme left-wing. As a result, Republicans naturally move away from the center to the right, and Democrats naturally move from the center to the left, leaving those in the moderate middle of both parites unrepresented, and polarizing the House of Representatives.

As an aside, the Senate is not directly polarized in the same way because there are two senators for each state, and since state boundaries were fixed long ago, no gerrymandering is possible. However, state party machines are polarized, which tends, indirectly, to move senators away from the center.

This polarization leads to confrontational, “gotcha” politics, more intent on scoring points against the other party than formulating intelligent policy, or serving America’s broader interests. If you can make the other guys look bad, even if it harms America, you’ll probably do so because you need to be elected, and that’s the name of that game. And that means that the American Congress often creates dangerous, harmful policies, even when American legislators, as a whole, know it’s the wrong thing to do. That makes it dangerous for the rest of the world, because economically as well as militarily, America is still the only superpower, and what it does affects everyone.

A more dangerous side effect

But there’s another, subtler and potentially even more dangerous side effect. While most of the districts from which the members of the House of Representatives are elected are gerrymandered to be safe, there are some that are not or cannot be. This often gives the representatives in those “unsafe” seats the deciding votes in a close issue where votes matter. By the nature of House politics (whose members are up for election every two years, and hence are effectively always running for re-election), this means that they can ask for almost anything, and get it. Hence, if one such district has a lot of, say, widget manufacturers who are being hurt by cheap widgets from China, or religious fundamentalists who despise the distribution of condoms to teenagers, the representative from that district can make a trade: she gives her vote on, say, a budget appropriate bill in exchange for protectionist legislation against Chinese widget manufacturers, or a prohibition against funding contraception counseling in Third World countries. Meanwhile, this may well provoke retaliation, or poison a sensitive foreign-policy relationship. As a result, American policy on a broad range of issues is, at times, being made by widget manufacturers, or fundamentalists, or some other group that is only interested in its own narrow, parochial interests, and couldn’t give a damn about broader issues, or America’s broader interests.

So, what can be done about this? Well, some states establish independent tribunals to set Congressional district boundaries, and there is some faint hope that this idea will spread, and return (some) sanity to American politics. But truthfully, the backroom pols of both parties much prefer the present system, especially because it’s so difficult to explain, and doesn’t fit a 30-second sound bite. They like exercising power behind the scenes, and will fight – dirty, if possible – to make sure that no one takes it away from them by making it understandable. Therefore, an enlightened and active electorate is the only solution.

Please feel free to forward this to anyone you think might find it of interest.

© Copyright, IF Research, August 2009.