What follows is an amalgam of presentations I made to two risk management groups in very different sectors: one in health care, and the other in insurance. The principles are the same, even though the immediate concerns may differ.

Let me start by defining risk management as the process of asking the right questions about what might happen in the future, and then preparing the best plans you can to deal with events that might occur. Hence, if there’s a major pandemic, and if you’ve considered that possibility, have a plan prepared to deal with it, and the plan works reasonably well, then you have adequately managed that risk.

And yet, I very much doubt that any contingency plan, no matter how well you prepare it, will deal with everything that happens – you will still be caught by surprise in some regards. This is why you always need to do a “lessons learned” assessment after each crisis. Your task in risk management, though, is to both to be able to cope with problems as they arise, and to be prepared to change your plans when new, unexpected developments occur.

I’m going to approach risk management from a futurist’s viewpoint, not from the body of risk management literature, so my view will be different from the risk management texts that are out there. (more…)