The astounding changes of the last 100 years – the greatest in history – are going to pale in comparison to the changes of the next 100 in just about every area of human experience. No one knows what will happen, and we can only speculate, but my own thoughts are that the changes to come include:
- Computers – Moore’s Law states that computers double in speed and halve in price every 18 months. We may be reaching the physical limitations in electronic computing, but there are new technologies on the horizon, including optical processing that may allow Moore’s Law to continue to operate. If it holds true for the next 100 years, then we will see an increase in the cost-effectiveness of computers of more than a trillion trillion times. This number is meaningless, but what it implies is that any problem that can be solved by brute force computing, coupled with increasingly sophisticated and intelligent software, will be done. Recall that 'Deep Blue,' IBM’s chess-playing computer, beat the human champion, Gary Kasparov, by brute force, not finesse. Robots will move from the realm of science fiction to reality. We will see computers and robots doing everything from holding complete and complex conversations with people on matters of metaphysics and art, to gauging whether someone on the witness stand is telling the truth with a very high probability of success, to divining the absolute latest fashion trends, to replacing almost anyone in any needed job. (See the back page for a discussion on the future of work.) This will produce a backlash against computers. It will also lead to computers that seem both intelligent and self-aware – creating, in effect, another intelligent race on this planet.
- Communications – We grew up in a world where communications was expensive ('Quick, get in here! Gramma’s on the phone, she’s calling long-distance!'). We will very shortly (within 20 years) live in a world where you can get almost unlimited communications capacity for a flat monthly fee that pays for the supplier’s administrative overhead. This, combined with the emergence of videophones and 3D television, will lead to 'virtual meetings,' where people appear to be meeting in person, sitting around a table, but are actually scattered around the globe. The only two limitations will be that problems with differing time zones will persist, as they are due to a law of nature and are not amenable to technology; and the speed-of-light time lag in communications between the Earth and Luna and the planets.
- The exploitation of space – The 21st century will be the century in which we finally move into space in force. The revolution in materials science may allow us to build elevators into space, bringing the cost per kilo of achieving orbit down to dollars from thousands. We will establish colonies in the Lagrange points of the orbits of both the Earth and the Moon, colonize the Moon, mine the asteroids, and start the initial work on terra forming Mars to convert it into an Earth-like planet. This will be spurred by commercial interests, not governments. However, the exploitation of space will also leave the way open for the military use of space for global domination, not to mention the possibility of global terrorism from space.
- Privacy will vanish – We are already becoming uncomfortably aware of how our personal privacy is being whittled away. Indeed, privacy is going to be one of the biggest battles in governance over the next 20 years. But it is a battle I think we are doomed to lose. Not only will intelligent, never-blinking, ever-cheaper computers scrutinize and analyze our every move and action, and become incredibly proficient at interpreting our thoughts from these actions, but the ability to peer behind closed doors is expanding dramatically. In an earlier issue, I wrote about the development of 'smart dust,' in effect, video cameras and computers the size of dust particles. Such dust can be released into an area, and report back on everything that is seen or heard to a central, coordinating computer. Activities in your office, on the phone, or in your bedroom will be open to people who, legally or illegally, choose to spy on you. We will learn to conduct our lives without secrets, living in a fishbowl, and our morals and ethics will change accordingly.
- Longer lives – A simple extrapolation of lengthening human life spans would have those of us with money living to between age 100 and 110 by the year 2100. However, with developments in genetic research, bionomics, biotechnology, and organ replacement from cloned tissue, I suspect that there will be people living in 2100 who were born in the middle of the 20th century, and with life spans of up to 300 years in prospect. In such a world, the divide between rich and poor becomes even more dramatic, and the largest causes of death will be accidents and suicide.
- The global ecology – The biggest eco-threat – human population – will dominate the next 100 years. Global population doubled almost twice since 1900, and while estimates of the peak in human population range from a high of 8 billion (from today’s 6 billion) to 22 billion, I suspect we will see a peak somewhere on the order of 12 to 15 billion. This is going to lead to global shortages of, and political and military conflicts over, fresh water, most notably in the Middle East, and between Canada and the U.S. It will point up bad present-day practices in the management of so-called renewable resources, like fish stocks and timber. It will produce a health crisis in the rise of allergies, asthma, and contact sensitivities as the production of new chemical compounds in our environment continue to explode. It may produce shortages of food unless consumers come to accept genetically modified foods, popularly being called 'Frankenfoods.'
- The divide between rich and poor – The globalization of trade and the use of communications and computers will mean that there will be pockets of affluent working people in the poorest countries, and pockets of Third World squalor in the richest countries. Moreover, the divide between the richest and the poorest, both within a nation, and between nation, will rise consistently. Since a narrow spread between rich and poor is generally seen as an indicator of a developed economy, this means that the global economy will actually regress instead of progress, even as many millions become wealthier and as the so-called paper economy, represented by stock markets, prospers.
© Copyright, IF Research, February 2000.
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